The main cereal crops grown in Syria are wheat and barley. Sowing of these crops started in October.  The proportion of cropland (rain-fed and irrigated) in Syria is about 32.8%, and regular rainfall is crucial for crop growth because most of the cropland in Syria is rain-fed.

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall was less than average (ΔRAIN -17%) and radiation was above average (ΔRADPAR +1%). The temperature was above average (ΔTEMP +2.1°C). The above agroclimatic conditons resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 3%. 

According to the NDVI profiles, the national average NDVI values were close to or below 0.2 from October to early December, and then increased to above average in January due to the abundant rainfall in mid and late January. The national average VCIx was 0.78 and CALF was 28% (ΔCALF +36%). The national CPI is 1.06, indicating  normal  crop production conditions. Overall, the crop conditions are average and better than in the previous years.

Regional analysis:

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, five sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Syria. They are the first (a) (220) and first (b) region (221), the second region (222), the third (223) and the fourth region (219). 

In the first region (b), the accumulated precipitation was less than average, and the temperature was above average in both (a, b) regions. The RADPAR was close to average. The weather conditions resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 1 to 8%. The national average VCIx values were about 1 for the two regions. The higher CALF values indicated more agricultural activities in this region; for the a) region, it was above its 5YA by 14% and for the (b) region it was up by 49%. According to NDVI profiles of the b region, crop conditions were below the 5YA except October and late January. The CPI values for the two regions are larger than 1.4, indicating favorable crop conditions. 

Agro-climatic conditions in the second, third and fourth regions were similar. The rainfall was below average by more than 17%, whereas the temperatures were above average and RADPAR was also above average. Due to the deficit in soil moisture balance caused by the low rainfall, potential biomass decreased by 9%. However, the CALF values in the three regions increased significantly by more than 33%, but they remained low. The average VCIx values in the second region, the third region and the fourth region were 0.85, 0.78 and 0.67. According to NDVI profiles of the three regions, crop conditions were above the 5YA in Dec and Jan. The CPI values for second, third and fourth regions were 0.92, 1.13 and 1.74, respectively. Overall, the crop outputs for three regions are estimated to be normal.

Figure 3.43 Syria’s crop condition, October 2023 – January 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profiles

(e) Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                (g) NDVI departure profiles 

(h) CPI time series graph

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The first (a) region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The first (b) region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The second region)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The third region)

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The fourth region)

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Badia region)

Table 3.77 Syria agro climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from October 2023 – January 2024

Table 3.78 Syria, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 – January 2024