From October 2023 to January 2024, the period covers the late harvest of corn and rice, and the main sowing period for wheat. Several indicators point to favorable conditions for crop growth and development in Türkiye. The average rainfall during this period was 374 mm, which is 9% higher than the 15-year average, providing ample water the germination and establishment of the winter cereals. The average temperature was 8°C, which was 2.5°C higher than the 15-year average. The Photosynthetically Active Radiation (RADPAR) was slightly above average at 581 W/m^2. The potential for biomass accumulation was 592 g of dry matter per square meter, which is 14% above the 15-year average level, indicating a good potential for crops. Compared to the 5-year average, the proportion of cultivated land has increased by 14%, indicating an expansion of agricultural activities. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is 0.93, close to optimal; the Crop Production Index (CPI) is 1.15, above the baseline, indicating good agricultural production conditions.

The Maximum VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) map shows that the VCI for the Eastern Anatolia region was relatively high, indicating that the crop growth was good. In contrast, the VCI for the Central Anatolia region was low, suggesting poorer crop conditions. After mid-November, due to the combined influence of Mediterranean depression zones and cold air moving south from the Arctic region, precipitation in Türkiye increased sharply. The NDVI values were affected by the heavy snowfall, resulting in lower readings.

Regional Analysis

Türkiye includes four agro-ecological regions: the Black Sea region (191), the Central Anatolia region (192), the Eastern Anatolia region (193) and the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions (194).

In the Black Sea region, the rainfall reached 425 millimeters, which is 5% higher than the 15-year average. The average temperature slightly increased by 0.7°C to 4.8°C, and the photosynthetically active radiation increased by 3% to 496 MJ/m^2, with a potential biomass of 528 g DM/m2. The Cropland Area Fraction (CALF) is 1% lower than the 15-year average, the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is 0.88, and the Crop Production Situation Index (CPI) is 0.93. The crop growth in this region is generally average.

In Central Anatolia region, the rainfall increased by 11% to 290 millimeters, which is favorable for winter cereals. The temperature rose by 2.2°C to 6.8°C, and the photosynthetically active radiation increased by 0.7% to 585 MJ/m^2, with a potential biomass of 538 gDM/m^2. The CALF is significantly higher than the 15-year average by 15%, but the maximum VCI indicates a slight decline (-10%) in vegetation health compared to the 5-year average. The CPI was 1.24.

Compared to the 15-year average, the rainfall in Eastern Anatolia region increased by 19% to 386 millimeters. The temperature rose by 2.2°C to 4.6°C. Although the photosynthetically active radiation decreased by 3% to 587 MJ/m^2, the increase in rainfall might have compensated for the lower radiation. The potential biomass was lower at 508 gDM/m^2, possibly due to the harsh climatic conditions of the area. The CALF is 84% higher than the 15-year average, and the maximum VCI shows a 7% improvement in vegetation health compared to the 5-year average. The CPI here is 1.85, consistent with the crop growth reflected by the VCI.

In the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions, the rainfall increased by 5% to 423 millimeters, which is beneficial for winter crops and soil moisture. The temperature rose by 2.5 degrees Celsius to 11.7 degrees Celsius. The photosynthetically active radiation increased by 2% to 600 MJ/m^2, which is favorable for crop growth, and the potential biomass is the highest at 700 gDM/m^2, indicating significant yield potential. The CALF is 8% higher than the 15-year average, but the maximum VCI is 0.87, indicating that vegetation health is 13% lower than the 5-year average. The CPI here is 1.10.

Figure 3.45 Türkiye’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.81 Türkiye’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.82 Türkiye’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024