Maize and winter wheat are the two major crops CropWatch monitors for Ukraine. During this monitoring period, maize was harvested in October and November, while winter wheat sowing was completed in October.

At the national level, Ukraine experienced a relatively warm (TEMP, 3.9℃) and wet (RAIN, 322 mm) winter. Temperatures were 1.6 ℃ above average,  while rainfall was 38% and solar radiation  (RADPAR, 279 MJ/m²) was +3% above the 15YA. Agroclimatic indicator-based projected potential biomass was 17% above the 15YA. 

However, cropped arable land fraction (CALF) in Ukraine is 58%, significantly decreasing by 24% compared to its 5YA. Meanwhile, a low maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx, 0.67)  and crop production index (CPI, 0.60) were recorded, which confirmed that cropped arable land was low during this monitoring period. The satellite-based NDVI graph also showed that the crop conditions were lower than the 5YA throughout the period, and drops by even more than 0.2 units of NDVI have been observed since mid-November. However, these large drops can be attributed to fog, cloud cover or snow. According to the VCIx map, crop conditions were poorer in central and southern Ukraine; VCIx was even below 0.5 in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Odesa oblasts, as well as in Crimea. They are at the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the crop sowing has been greatly affected. In general, abundant rainfall did not benefit crop conditions in this period. However, high winter precipitation would help restore soil moisture, and the crops may recover from the below-average conditions during spring green-up. CropWatch is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of winter wheat.  

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agroecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. They are referred to as the Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

All four AEZs shared a similar situation in agroclimatic conditions. Abundant rainfall was recorded, ranging from 32% (Southern wheat and maize area) to 41% (Eastern Carpathian hills) higher than 15YA, temperature was warmer from 1.1℃ (Northern wheat area) to 2.2℃ (Southern wheat and maize area), radiation was closed to average, ranging from -1% (Eastern Carpathian hills) to 6% (Southern wheat and maize area). Favorable weather resulted in a 12% (Northern wheat area) to 20% (Southern wheat and maize area) increase in potential biomass.

Although NDVI-based crop condition development in all four AEZs was significantly below 5YA,  agronomic conditions in Eastern Carpathian hills and  Northern wheat area were much better than in Central wheat and Southern wheat and maize areas. The first two AEZs had good CALF (0.96 and 0.81), VCIx (0.88 and 0.77), and normal CPI (0.92 and 0.78), indicating good crop prospects for winter crops such as winter wheat. However, the other two AEZs attained low CALF (0.55 and 0.35), VCIx (0.65 and 0.55), and CPI (0.58 and 0.40), indicative of overall poor crop conditions. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on crop production is still obvious.

Figure 3.46 Ukraine's crop condition, October 2023 – January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Table 3.83 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  October 2023 – January 2024

Table 3.84 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 – January 2024