During the reporting period of October 2023 to January 2024, CropWatch focuses on changes in agro-climatic and agronomic information in the winter wheat producing zones. Winter wheat was predominantly sown in September and October. In the colder regions, such as in Kansas, wheat usually goes dormant in December, whereas in Texas, it stays green. Overall, crop conditions for the winter crops were average.

The US experienced a relatively warm fall-winter period with above average temperatures (ΔTEMP +0.9°C), below average rainfall (ΔRAIN -3%), and average radiation,  which resulted in above-average biomass production potential (ΔBIOMSS +5%).  The below-average rainfall was recorded after sowing of winter crops, delaying germination and growth of winter crops.  The extreme cold in mid-January posed a risk of frost damage to field crops.

The marked heterogeneity in agroclimatic conditions and phenology resulted in significant differences in crop growth conditions among regions. Overall, the NDVI profiles showed above average crop growing conditions, except for January, which was affected by extreme cold weather. The national average VCIx was close to average at 0.81, indicating close to average crop conditions. The strong heterogeneity of crop conditions was captured by NDVI anomaly clusters. They show above average conditions for the Upper Midwest. However, in most regions, the trends were close to the 5YA. The U.S. Crop Production Index (CPI) was affected by a brief period of extremely cold weather, which left the U.S. with a score of only 0.83, below the value of the same periods of the last two years. During the next monitoring period, winter crops in the Southern Plains and Northwest will enter the nodulation, tasseling, and flowering phases, which will significantly increase moisture requirements.

Regional Analysis

Southern Plain (207), Northwest (206), and California (201) are the major winter crop production regions. The winter crops entered  overwintering stage in the Southern Plain and Northwest. The winter crops in California entered into jointing and heading stage by January.

California is the most important region for fruit and vegetable production in the USA, and it is also a major producer of winter wheat. According to the NDVI profile, the crop condition was close to average at the end of January. During the reporting period, California had above-average temperatures (ΔTEMP +0.9°C) and below-average rainfall and radiation (ΔRAIN -7% , ΔRADPAR -3%). Higher temperatures resulted in higher than average (ΔBIOMSS +5%) biomass production potential. The cropped arable land fraction (ΔCALF, +10%) was above average. The VCIx reached 0.83, which is close to the average. The Crop Production Index (CPI) reached 1.05, with winter crops yields expected to be above average due to favorable rainfall conditions starting in mid December.

The Northwest is another important winter wheat growing region, including Washington and Oregon. The fluctuations in the NDVI profile showed high variability. This was partly due to cloud cover in the satellite images and snow and a cold snap in January.  Agroclimatic conditions showed that the Northwest experienced relatively wet weather, with above average rainfall (ΔRAIN +3%) and temperature (ΔTEMP +0.8°C) and below average radiation (ΔRADPAR -3%) compared to the 15-year average, resulting in higher than average biomass production potential (ΔBIOMSS +6%). Rainfall was unevenly distributed. Nevertheless, total rainfall (400 mm) was sufficient to ensure a good establishment of winter wheat. The cropped arable land fraction (ΔCALF +34%) was much higher than average, the VCIx was 0.98, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) reached 1.57. Overall, winter wheat growth in the region was above average.

The Southern Plains is the most important winter wheat producing region in the United States, including the states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. On average, the Southern Plains experienced wet and warm weather, characterized by above average rainfall (ΔRAIN +12%) and temperature (ΔTEMP 0.4℃), and below-average radiation (ΔRADPAR -1%), resulting in above average biomass (ΔBIOMSS +11%). The NDVI profile indicates that winter wheat is in good condition in this region. Across the agroecological subregion, the cropped arable land fraction (ΔCALF +1%) is slightly above average, the VCIx is 0.79, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) is 1.03. Overall, conditions were above average in the Southern Plains region.

Figure 3.47 United States crop condition, October 2023-January 2024

(a) Phenology of United States from October 2023 to January 2024

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(g) National CPI time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

 (i) Time series rainfall profile

 (j) Time series temperature profile

 (k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

 (l) Time series rainfall profile

 (m) Time series temperature pofile

 (n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

 (o) Time series rainfall profile

 (p) Time series temperature profile

Table 3.85 United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.86 United States’agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure,  October 2023-January 2024