This monitoring period from October 2023 to January 2024 covers the sowing and early growth stages of winter wheat in Uzbekistan. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) were above average (ΔTEMP +3.0°C and ΔRADPAR +2%), while rainfall (RAIN) was below average (ΔRAIN -11%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was generally below the 15YA, but significantly above the 15YA in late November and late January. The temperature was significantly higher than average during this monitoring period except in mid-October and mid-December. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) slightly decreased by 3%. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that crop conditions were close to the five-year average in October and early November but was significantly below the five-year average afterward, which presumably was caused by snow cover.

The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.79. The areas with low VCIx values were mainly in the middle of the Eastern hilly cereals zone and the northwest of the Aral Sea cotton zone. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 16%) decreased by 12% compared to its 5YA. As shown in the NDVI cluster graph and profiles, 22.2% of arable land (dark green) had unfavorable conditions during October to November, but turned to better crop conditions than average in December and January. 11% of arable land (light green) had above-average crop conditions in most of the monitoring period, but slightly unfavorable crop conditions at the beginning of October. 8.3% of arable land (blue), distributed mainly in the Eastern hilly cereals, had average crop conditions in most of the monitoring period, but significant unfavorable conditions in late January. The other 27.8% of arable land (orange) had favorable crop conditions during most of the monitoring period, but close to the average in late December and late January. 30.7% of arable land (red) had unfavorable crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.90, which is close to the five-year average CPI (0.89), but lower than the CPI last year (1.12). Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Uzbekistan were generally close to the 5-year average in this monitoring period. The coming spring green-up period will be critical for the yield potential of winter wheat.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212). It is noteworthy that the crop condition in the central region with sparse crops had little impact on the crop production of Uzbekistan since the crop fields are sparse in the region.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, RAIN was below fifteen-year average (ΔRAIN -11%), while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (ΔTEMP +3°C and ΔRADPAR +2%). The CALF was 19%. It decreased by 13% compared to the 5YA. The average VCIx index was 0.78. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were close to the 5YA in October and early November, but were significantly below the five-year average afterward. The BIOMSS was decreased by 4% compared to its 15YA. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.92. The prospects for crop production were average.  

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN was below fifteen-year average (ΔRAIN -9%), while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (ΔTEMP +2.5°C and ΔRADPAR +1%). The BIOMSS was the same as the average. The CALF (6%) decreased by 5% compared to the 5YA and the maximum VCI index was 0.83. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.90. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were below the 5YA in this monitoring period, except in late October and beginning of November. The NDVI values were lower than 0.1 at the end of January, probably due to the cloud or snow. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were slightly unfavorable. 

Figure 3.48 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024 

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                               (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Eastern hilly cereals region (left) and Aral Sea cotton region (right)

(i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.87 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.88 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024