This monitoring period covers the harvest of the rainy season rice and the sowing of winter and winter-spring rice in North and Central Vietnam. The winter-spring rice planted in the Mekong Delta and Southeast Vietnam will be harvested in February.

 The proportion of irrigated cropland in Vietnam is 32%. Therefore, precipitation is an important element affecting crop production. The agro-climatic indicators showed below-average RAIN (ΔRAIN -10%) and above-average TEMP (ΔTEMP +1.3°C). Despite of the decreased precipitation, the BIOMSS (924 gDM/m²) was the same as the 15YA because of the increase in RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +8%). The VCIx was 0.93 and the CALF was at the 5YA. The crop production index in this monitoring period was 0.99, which indicates a normal crop production situation.

Based on the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were close to the 5-year average throughout the monitoring period. Above average crop conditions from October to early December were followed by below average conditions. During the entire monitoring phase,  precipitation trended slightly under the 15YA but exceeded the average in late October and mid November. The temperature was mostly above the 15-year average but below average in mid-November and late January. As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, the crop conditions of the country were generally slightly below average from November to December. Crop conditions in 26.9% of the cropland (located mainly in Ha Giang, Cao Bang, Tuyen Quang and Bac Can provinces) exceeded the average in January. In the other 73.1% regions ( Central Highlands, Mekong River Delta, South Central Coast and South East), crop conditions were generally close to, but below the average. Overall, crop conditions can be assessed as average for this monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Vietnam can be divided into several agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Central Highlands (213), Mekong River Delta (214), North Central Coast (215), North East (216), North West (217), Red River Delta (218), South Central Coast (219) and South East (220).

In the Central Highlands, the TEMP (ΔTEMP +0.6°C) slightly surpassed the average. Despite an 8% rise in RADPAR, the BIOMSS still had a slight decrease (ΔBIOMSS -2%), which may have been caused by the decline of RAIN by 9%. CALF was 99% and VCIx was 0.95. According to the crop condition development curve, the overall NDVI trend was downward, with a slight increase in late October. The CPI was 1.01. Conditions were normal.

In the Mekong River Delta, the TEMP (ΔTEMP +1°C) was above the average. Although the RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +10%) exceed the 15YA, the BIOMASS (ΔBIOMSS -6%) was below average due to the decrease in RAIN (ΔRAIN -9%). VCIx was 0.92 and CALF was 94%. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA in the monitoring period, and there was a sharp drop in early January, which may have been caused by the cloud cover in the satellite images. The CPI was 1.00. Crop production was considered to be normal.

In the North Central Coast, due to slightly decreased RAIN (ΔRAIN -2%) and increased TEMP (ΔTEMP +1.2°C) and RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +6%), the BIOMSS demonstrated a rising trend compared to the 15YA (ΔBIOMSS +7%). VCIx was 0.91 and CALF was 95%. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were mostly above the 5YA during the whole monitoring period except for January. The CPI was 0.96 and crop conditions in this region were a bit lower than the average.

In the North East, TEMP and RADPAR were both above the average (ΔTEMP +1.8°C; ΔRADPAR +6%). Bdut RAIN decreased (ΔRAIN -23%), and the BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS -1%) was a little lower than the average level. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.94. According to the NDVI-based development graph, the NDVI was generally below the 5YA during the whole monitoring period but exceeded the average in early December and January. Because of the influence of the clouds in the satellite images the NDVI suddenly dropped below the 5YA in mid-January. The CPI was 0.94. Overall, the crop conditions were estimated to be below the average.

In the North West, the TEMP (ΔTEMP +1.6°C) and RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +8%) surpassed the average. But the RAIN declined by 24%, and the BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS -3%) was below average. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.94. According to the agroclimatic indicators, crop conditions were mostly near the 5YA in most of the monitoring period. The CPI was 0.97. The crop conditions were slightly below the average.

In the Red River Delta, increased TEMP (ΔTEMP +1.5°C), decreased RAIN (ΔRAIN -15%), and increased RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +6%) all resulted in increased BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS +6%). The CALF was 92% and the VCIx was 0.89. According to the crop condition development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA in most of the monitoring period, the NDVI dropped sharply in mid-January, which may have been caused by cloud cover in the satellite images. The CPI was 0.98. The crop conditions are assessed as below average.

In the South Central Coast, TEMP was above average (ΔTEMP +1.2°C). Although the RAIN decreased by 8%, the BIOMSS still increased by 3%, which may have been caused by the significant increase of RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +10%). CALF was 97% and VCIx was 0.93. According to the crop condition development graph, crop conditions were generally above the 5YA during the whole monitoring period. The sharp drop in late December may have been caused by cloud cover in the satellite images. The CPI was 1.00. Crop conditions were expected to be normal.

In the South East, the RAIN (ΔRAIN -13%) was lower than the 15YA. But with the TEMP (ΔTEMP +1.1°C) surpassed the average and higher RADPAR  (+11%), the resulting BIOMASS showed a decrease by 7%. CALF was 96% and VCIx was 0.92. According to the crop condition development graph, crop conditions surpassed the average from October to mid-November and then turned to be below average from late November to mid-January. In mid-November, the drop in NDVI may have been caused by clouds in the satellite images. The CPI was 1.00. Crop production in this region was estimated to be on average.

Figure 3.49 Vietnam's crop conditions, October 2023 – January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                                                (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National CPI time series

(g) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                                                                 (h) Temperature profiles

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central Highlands Vietnam (left), and Mekong River Delta (right).

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI North Central Coast Vietnam (left), and North East Vietnam (right).

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI North West Vietnam (left), and Red River Delta (right).

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI South Central Coast Vietnam (left), and South East Vietnam (right).

Table 3.89 Vietnam's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 – January 2024

Table 3.90 Vietnam's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 – January 2024