In South Africa, wheat is the main crop harvested during this monitoring period. Maize sowing started in October for the east and in December for the west. Soybean planting also started in October. 

Based on the NDVI development graph, during this monitoring period, the crop conditions remained largely close to the 5-year average for most of the time. However, in December, insufficient precipitation led to a slight decrease in NDVI below the average level.

At the national level, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that TEMP and RADPAR were above the 15-year average (+0.7°C, +5%). Due to a rainfall  deficit (-36%), the BIOMSS decreased significantly by 10% compared to the 15-year average.The VCIx was 0.90 and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased slightly by 4% compared with the last 5 years. The CPI was 0.93, indicating good progress with sowing and establishment of the new crops.

As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, crop conditions on about 66.2% of the cropland were close to and above average，mainly in the central and eastern parts；and about 13.1% were below average during the whole monitoring period，mainly in the North West Province. Overall, crop conditions in South Africa were generally favorable, but the rainfall deficit impacted growth in December, when NDVI levels dropped to below-average levels. January was also much drier than usual.

Regional analysis

In the Arid and desert zones (221), RAIN (68 mm) was significantly below average (-44%) while RADPAR（+3%）and TEMP（+1.0℃）were slightly above average. BIOMSS decreased by 8% due to the low rainfall. CALF increased (+15%) and VCIx was 0.94. The CPI was 0.72, indicating a relatively low level. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that the crop conditions were below the 5-year average level in December, but for the majority of the other months, it remained above the 5-year average. Overall, the crop condition is considered moderate.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains (222), the TEMP (+0.5°C) and RADPAR (+5%) were above average. Due to insufficient rainfall (282 mm, -26%), BIOMSS was below the 15-year average (-10%). CALF was 99% and VCIx was 1.0. The CPI was 1.09, indicating a normal level. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI also indicates favorable crop conditions, which were close to or above the 5-year average.

In the Mediterranean zone (223) , the TEMP (+0.6°C) and RADPAR（+3%）were above the average. Rainfall dropped to 81 mm  (-30%). The BIOMSS was decreased by 7% due to the insufficient rainfall. CALF increased (77%, +28%) and VCIx was 1.03. The CPI was 1.43, indicating a high level. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was above the 5-year average for the whole period, which indicates that crop conditions were generally favorable.

In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (224), RAIN (159 mm, -38%) was significantly below the 15-year average, whereas TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.8°C, +5%). The BIOMSS was decreased by 10% due to the insufficient rainfall. CALF increased slightly (89%, +6%) and VCIx was 0.86. The CPI was 0.86, indicating a relatively poor crop production. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that the NDVI was near or below the 5-year average for most of the period. All in all, the crop conditions were unfavorable.

Figure 3.50 South Africa's crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of the main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Time series rainfall pofile

(e) Time series temperature pofile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (g) NDVI departure profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Arid desert (left) and Humid sub-tropical (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI semiarid steppe (left)  and Mediterranean (right)

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.91 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.92 South Africa's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024