This reporting period covers the onset of the rainy season and the harvesting of irrigated winter wheat. There was a delayed onset of the rains, however by the end of November into December the rains were well established for planting of cereals (maize, sorghum, millets) and legumes (soybean, groundnuts, beans) and oil seeds (sunflower) throughout the country. As usual, the onset of the rainy season was earlier in the northern parts than in the southern parts of the country. The onset of the season was generally below average compared to the previous five years. The observed annual rainfall was below the 15YA (ΔRAIN -37%), the temperature increased (ΔTEMP +1.2°C), and radiation also increased (ΔRADPAR +4%). The resulting potential biomass production decreased (ΔBIOMSS -15%), mainly due to the reduction in rainfall. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was at 97% with a VCIx value of 0.87. At national level, the crop production index was below 1.0 (CPI=0.90) indicating unfavorable crop production. This is due to the severe precipitation deficit, which started in mid January.  The main affected areas are located in the Central Eastern and Southern Plateau, which is the main agriculture production belt for the country.

Regional Analysis

Zambia is subdivided into four main crop production zones, namely the Northern high rainfall zone, Central-eastern and southern plateau, Western semi-arid plain, and Luangwa Zambezi rift valley. The Northern high rainfall zone (226), which predominantly receives higher rainfall, had a decrease in rain (ΔRAIN -26%), and warmer temperatures (ΔTEMP +1.1°C). Radiation also increased (ΔRADPAR +3%), while the potential biomass production decreased (ΔBIOMASS -8%). The observed cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was at 100% and VCIx was at 0.91.

The Central-Eastern and Southern plateau (227), the main crop production region in the country, received less rainfall (ΔRAIN -41%), which resulted in decreased potential biomass production (ΔBIOMASS -17%). Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was at 94%, while VCIx was 0.84. 

The Western semi-arid plain  also experienced reduced rainfall (ΔRAIN -47%). This resulted in reduced biomass production (ΔBIOMASS -20%) because the predominantly sandy soils have a low water holding capacity. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) in this region was 99% and VCIx was 0.90.

The Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (225) is the driest zone. It also experienced a reduction in rainfall (ΔRAIN -52%), increased temperature (ΔTEMP +1.4°C), increased radiation (ΔRADPAR +6%) and a reduction in potential biomass production (ΔBIOMASS -21%). CALF was at 99% and VCIx at 0.87. 

At the regional level, the Crop Production Index (CPI) was above 1.0 for the Northern high rainfall zone and Western Semi-arid plain, while it was below 1.0 for the Luangwa Zambezi rift valley (CPI=0.94) and the Central Eastern and Southern plateau (CPI = 0.85).  

Table 3.93 Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and  departure from 15YA, October 2023 – January 2024

Table 3.94 Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure  from 5YA, October 2023 – January 2024

Figure 3.51 Zambia’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI （Luangwa Zambezi rift valley）

(d) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI （Northen high rainfall zone）

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI （Central-eastern and southern plateau）

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI （Western semi-arid plain）

(g) Rainfall profile

(h) Temperature profile

(i) Maximum VCI

(j) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and NDVI departure profiles

(k) CPI time series graph