After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 then presents China's crop prospects (section 4.2), describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

Agro-climatic conditions in China were favorable from October 2023 to January 2024. Winter wheat sowing was completed in late October, and the crop entered the overwintering period in December. Spring green-up will begin in February. Radiation and temperature increased by 3% and 1.0°C, respectively, compared to the 15-year average. Rainfall was 4% above the 15-year average. These favorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in above-average potential biomass (+9%). The national average for the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) is 0.88, while the Crop Production Index (CPI) is 0.97.

Temperatures in seven of the agroecological zones (AEZs) of China were all above average, ranging from +0.4°C (Inner Mongolia) to +1.3°C (Southern China and South West China). Six of the agricultural ecological zones (AEZs) received above-average rainfall, with positive rainfall departures ranging from 6% (Inner Mongolia and Southern China) to 35% (North East China). The remaining AEZ, the Lower Yangtze region, which usually has abundant rainfall, experienced below-average precipitation (-11%), but it would not affect crop growth. Favorable agroclimatic conditions, including rainfall, radiation, and temperature, contributed to positive departures in the potential biomass (BIOMSS) indicator across all seven AEZs. The increase ranged from 2% in Southern China to 18% in North East China. The Lower Yangtze region has the best crop production prospect, with a CPI value of 1.09.

The rainfall distribution was as follows: 97.9% of the agricultural area (marked in dark green and light green) experienced near-average rainfall (with absolute departure values no more than 30mm/dekad). This rainfall was widely distributed across China. The remaining 2.1% of the cultivated area (marked in blue) experienced fluctuations in rainfall. In mid-October, the middle part of Southern China (border region between Guangdong and Guangxi provinces) experienced excessive rainfall (more than +200 mm/dekad) due to the landing of typhoon Sanba. The temperature profiles showed that all three clustered regions had similar patterns of change, with some variations in magnitude. In late October, the regions marked in dark green, mainly located in Huang Huaihai, Inner Mongolia, and some parts of the Loess region and North East China, experienced the largest positive departures from the 15-year average temperature, exceeding +4.0℃. In mid-December, the regions marked in light green, mainly located in North East China, experienced the largest negative departures from the 15-year average temperature, exceeding -5.0℃. It is worth noting that by this time, the summer crops had already reached maturity and no winter crops were grown in that region.

At the provincial level, 11 provinces experienced positive rainfall anomalies, ranging from 4% (Yunnan) to 56% (Liaoning). All provinces recorded positive temperature anomalies, ranging from 0.4℃ (Inner Mongolia and Liaoning) to 1.7℃ (Guizhou). Based on the CPI profile, the current CPI value (0.97) is slightly lower than the 5-year average (1.02). Overall, crop conditions were normal.

Table 4.1. CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, October 2023 - January 2024, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, October 2023 - January 2024

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, October 2023 to January 2024

Figure 4.4 Cropped and uncropped arable land over winter crops producing provinces, by pixel, October 2023 - January 2024

Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, October 2023 - January 2024

Figure 4.6 China Potential biomass departure from 15YA, by pixel, October 2023 - January 2024

Figure 4.7 China Crop Production Index profile, October 2023 - January 2024