During the monitoring period (October 2023 to January 2024), winter wheat and rapeseed were the main crops in Huanghuaihai. Agro-climate indicators indicate that precipitation was 8% higher, temperature was 0.7°C higher, and radiation was 3% higher than the 15-year average. This resulted in an estimated 14% increase in crop biomass production potential compared with 15YA.

Due to the low winter temperatures, winter wheat in the region is currently in a dormant stage. The NDVI departure clustering map displays various patterns of crop conditions, approximately 26.2% of the croplands concentrated in northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu consistently showed a below-average trend. But in general, wheat  in this region was close to the average level, except for the eastern Henan and southwestern Shandong regions. The VCIx map also shows low values in those areas. According to the potential biomass deviation map, weather conditions were generally favorable in most areas except for large negative deviations in Beijing and central Shandong due to alternating short-term droughts and heavy rains. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) was 0.83, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was estimated to be 2% below the five-year average. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.9, below 5YA and the 2022-2023 winter period.

Overall, the crop condition in the entire region is close to average. However, it still depends on the conditions after the green-up stage.

Figure 4.10 Crop condition Huanghuaihai, October 2023 – January 2024

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b) Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA (c) NDVI profile

(d) Time series rainfall profile 

(e) Time serise temperature profile

(f) Maximum VCI

(g) Biomass Departure