During this monitoring period, only winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed were in the field, mostly in the north of the region, including parts of Hubei, Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. Limited winter crops were planted in Fujian, the southern Jiangxi and Hunan provinces.

According to the CropWatch agro-climatic indicators, the accumulated precipitation was 11% below the average. Temperature and photosynthetically active radiation were 1.0℃ and 5% higher than the 15-year averages, respectively. The agro-climatic condition with above average radiation resulted in an increase of biomass potential production by 5%. This monitoring period was the early crop growth and overwintering period with low crop water requirements. Therefore, low precipitation had limited impact on crop growth. Also, the period of decrease in precipitation was concentrated in late November and late December.

As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to the 5-year average throughout this period. 47.1% of the region, mainly in the northern part, including Anhui, southern Henan, Hubei and the area around Poyang and Dongting lake, had above-average crop growth and the potential biomass departure in this part ranged from 0% to 20%.The crop growth in Jiangsu was slightly below average, and the potential biomass departure presented the same spatial pattern. The average VCIx of this region was 0.94, and most of the area had VCIx values ranging from 0.8 to 1.

In general, the crop conditions in the Lower Yangtze region were close to average.

Figure 4.12 Crop condition China Lower Yangtze region, October 2023 – January 2024

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                      (b) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (c) NDVI profiles

(d)Time series rainfall profile                                                                   (e)Time series temperature profile

(f) Maximum VCI                                                                                            (g) Biomass departure