Methodological introduction

This bulletin focuses on the main grain-producing countries in the equatorial region and the southern hemisphere and forecasts winter crop production in a few countries in the northern hemisphere, such as Pakistan and India.

To address the challenges posed by the dynamic complexity of factors affecting crop production, high uncertainty in single models, and poor monitoring effectiveness under extreme conditions, CropWatch has developed four different types of remote sensing models for crop yield monitoring. These include the Biomass-Harvest Index model, the Remote Sensing Index model, the Remote Sensing and Crop Model Coupling model, and the Data-Driven model. The CropWatch primarily relies on remote sensing data and incorporates ground-truth data, crop masks, and statistical information from some countries, and performs calibration of yield prediction models separately for different crop types. Crop planting areas are determined using data and methods such as crop classification and land planting ratios. Yield estimates from the previous year are then updated with the predictions for the current year.

Production estimates

Maize

Table 5.1 presents the maize production for eight major maize-producing countries, including the second and third largest maize exporters, Brazil and Argentina. The total maize production of these eight countries accounts for approximately 19% of global production. A persistent drought is hampering maize production in Brazil for the 2023-2024 production season. A reduction in production is estimated for the central and southern regions of Brazil by 1.2%. This results in an estimate of 21.90 million tonnes for the first season maize crop. The continuing drought is forecasted to reduce production of the second-season maize crop by 3.1%. The national maize production is estimated at 97.58 million tonnes. In contrast, favorable agroclimatic conditions in Argentina contribute to an increase in maize planting area, and crops receive sufficient water, promoting maize development and yield formation. The maize yield in Argentina sees a significant recovery with an increase of 23.8%. The maize production in Argentina is expected to reach 64.29 million tonnes, indicating a substantial increase of 29.4%. Due to the El Niño, several countries in Southern Africa are experiencing severe drought, with South Africa being the most severely affected. In its primary maize-producing regions, rainfall is approximately 39% below normal, leading to a decline in maize production to 11.57 million tonnes, a decrease of 5.2%. The drought in Southern Africa also affects Mozambique and Zambia, where both maize planting area and yield show a slight decrease, resulting in a 1.3% and 4.6% reduction in maize production, respectively. Meanwhile, in Angola, located in the western part of Southern Africa, ample rainfall led to an expansion of maize planting area, resulting in a maize production of 2.97 million tonnes, an increase of 8.7%. In Kenya, the drought has been effectively alleviated, with significant improvements in crop growth compared to previous years. Both maize planting area and yield have increased, contributing to a recovery in maize production by 17.5%. In the northern maize-producing regions of Mexico, a significant reduction in rainfall during the planting period has led to a decrease in area planted. Additionally, consistently low rainfall during crucial growth periods has resulted in a decline in maize yield. Consequently, the total maize production is expected to decrease by 10.0%.

Rice

The rice production forecast primarily covers major rice-producing countries in Southeast Asia, as well as some countries in Africa and South America. The monitored countries, totaling 11 rice-producing countries, contribute to 29% of global rice production. The total rice production is expected to increase by 0.9% slightly. Most Southeast Asian countries exhibit relatively small variations in rice production. Notably, Cambodia's dry-season rice production has shown a recovery compared to the previous year, reaching a total production of 10.65 million tonnes, representing a significant increase of 3.2%. It is the highest among Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, Sri Lanka and Thailand experienced increases in rice production of 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively, mainly benefiting from favorable agroclimatic conditions and, in the case of Sri Lanka, government support for fertilizer purchases. This led to an increase in average rice yield. Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam show rice production similar to those in 2023, with variations all below 1%. Brazil and Argentina witness substantial increases in rice yield and planting area, resulting in a total rice production growth of 8.0% and 17.8%, respectively. In Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, which recieved favorable rainfalls, is the main rice producing state. Conversely, drought in rice-producing regions of Mozambique and Angola leads to a decline in yield, resulting in a decrease of 2.6% and 7.1% in total rice production, respectively.

Wheat

As of the end of 2023, wheat harvests have been completed in the Southern Hemisphere countries of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Zambia. This bulletin focuses on wheat-producing countries in tropical and subtropical regions, including Egypt, Morocco, India, Pakistan, and Mexico. In South Asia, India and Pakistan heavily rely on irrigation for wheat cultivation, with agricultural meteorological conditions having a relatively minor impact on wheat yield. Remote sensing indicates a slight decrease in wheat planting area in Pakistan, leading to a decline of 2.4% in wheat production, estimated at 24.50 million tonnes. In India, where the primary wheat-producing regions experience lower radiation, affecting wheat growth and development, results in a slight decrease in yield and a marginal decline in total wheat production to 96.13 million tonnes, a 1.5% reduction. Egypt witnesses a slight decrease in both wheat planting area and yield, leading to a 2.9% decrease in total wheat production. Morocco faces severe drought in its wheat-producing regions, resulting in a reduction in planting area, partial crop failures in some major production areas, and a significant decrease in average wheat yield. Consequently, Morocco's total wheat production for the 2023-2024 period is expected to decrease substantially to 4.20 million tonnes, the lowest production in nearly a decade, with a decrease of 39.5%. In Mexico, favorable agroclimatic conditions in wheat-producing regions, coupled with the reliance on irrigation for most wheat, contribute to a higher wheat yield and an increase of 1.7% in total wheat production.

Soybean

During this monitoring period, special attention is given to soybean production in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, the two major soybean-producing countries. CropWatch estimates a slight reduction in soybean production in Brazil. The main contributing factors are persistent drought, leading to a decrease of 2.0% in soybean planting area and 1.6% in yield. The total soybean production is projected to be 102.85 million tonnes, a decline of 3.5%. In Argentina, the favorable agroclimatic conditions during the soybean growing season led to the average soybean yield increasing significantly by 27.1% compared to the severe drought of 2022-2023. Remote sensing monitoring indicates an increase of 11.4% in the soybean planting area. Consequently, the national soybean production is expected to rebound with a substantial increase of 41.6%, reaching 59.48 million tonnes.

Table 5.1 2024 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2024 production when compared with corresponding 2023 values.