This section covers worldwide disaster events reported from October 2023 to January 2024. These events include conflicts, droughts, and the desert locust situation.

Impact of armed conflict

The Democratic Republic of Congo: Fighting between government forces and rebels in North Kivu since October 2023 has severely worsened the security and humanitarian situation. The Red Cross reports nearly 450,000 new displacements, but limited access hampers the humanitarian response. The imminent departure of EAC troops and the arrival of SADEC troops could worsen the situation, potentially increasing the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Ongoing armed clashes in eastern DRC continue to displace people, exposing them to gender-based violence (GBV) and cholera. This highlights the urgent need for protection and water, sanitation, and hygiene services. Furthermore, heavy rainfall and flooding from October 2023 to January 2024 have led to at least 300 deaths and affected about 300,000 households. An estimated 1.7 million people across the DRC are expected to face acute malnutrition from January to June, emphasizing the urgent humanitarian needs in the country.

In the northeastern and central-eastern regions of the country, the lean season persisted until mid-December. During this period, households depleted their below-average stocks from the agricultural season, resulting in low food availability. This situation was particularly acute in conflict zones, where access to fields and markets remained challenging in some areas. Households in these conflict-affected areas faced food consumption deficits due to the early exhaustion of seasonal stocks.

Gaza strip: The conflict in Gaza is severely impacting food security and livelihoods. Even before hostilities began in October 2023, a large portion of the population relied on humanitarian aid. Agriculture is crucial, providing income and food, including meat, fish, fruits, and vegetables. The conflict disrupted imports of food and non-food items, reducing food availability. Essential items like wheat and rice are now scarce. Damage to storage facilities, mills, and markets has worsened the situation, with markets in northern areas collapsing. By mid-November 2023, stocks of wheat flour, dairy products, mineral water, and eggs were depleted. About 28% of Gaza's agricultural land has been damaged, with Gaza and the northern governorate most affected. Over 20% of irrigation wells are destroyed, and much agricultural infrastructure is damaged.

The impact of the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip continues to be severe. Between December 2023 and February 2024, it is estimated that the entire population of about 2.2 million people will face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above), with 576,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). This puts the risk of famine at a very high level, as the threshold for acute food insecurity has already been surpassed. If hostilities persist, the thresholds for acute malnutrition and non-trauma-related mortality could also be exceeded by mid-2024.

Russia-Ukraine conflict: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been ongoing for two years, causing continuous disruption to Ukraine’s agricultural production and trade and posing a sustained threat to global food security. According to a recent Ukrainian agriculture ministry survey, Ukrainian producers are expected to further cut corn plantings in 2024/25 but increase oilseed area, especially soybeans and rapeseed.

The conflict has also shifted Ukraine export patterns, particularly for wheat. Disruptions to Black Sea shipping routes have resulted in more Ukraine exports going to Europe (e.g. from about 2% to 52%) and less to regions such as sub-Saharan Africa or Asia. However, the shift in agricultural exports towards neighboring countries has sparked strong protests from local farmers. In recent months, the reopening of Odesa ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) allowed Ukraine to export substantial quantities of grain and oilseeds, and exports have returned to pre-conflict levels.

Despite being one of the world’s largest agricultural exporting nations, Ukraine's position as a key supplier in global commodity markets is being challenged by increased competition from other major agricultural exporters. For example, Russia had back-to-back record crops of wheat in 2022/23 and 2023/24, contributing to record wheat exports. Meanwhile, increased wheat exports from the EU, Australia and Canada as well as increased corn exports from North and South America have enabled importers to find alternative suppliers. As a result of these factors, while the prices of wheat, corn, and soybeans surged in the months following the outbreak of the conflict, they have now decreased to levels below those seen before the conflict, though still higher than pre-pandemic levels. 

Overall, the prospects for peace still seem elusive, and the global trade situation remains uncertain. Policies such as export bans on staples like rice, sugar, or vegetable oils, coupled with factors like local armed conflicts, continue to drive volatility in food prices, exacerbating their impact on the global market. In response to these challenges, there is a need for more resilient solutions, including investments in innovative sustainable agricultural productivity to build resilience in vulnerable countries and communities worldwide. Meanwhile, enhancing global cooperation and maintaining a well-functioning and responsive global market remains crucial to fostering stability and food security in the increasingly interconnected world.

Desert locust

The desert locust situation from October to January has been dynamic, with breeding, swarms, and control efforts spanning several countries in Africa and Asia (Figure 5.3).

Figure 5.3 Desert locust situation, October 2023 – January 2024 (Source: https://www.fao.org/locust-watch/information/bulletin/en)

In October, breeding was noted in Chad, Mauritania, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan, with swarms in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen, and adults in several other countries. Control operations were ongoing in several regions, and above-normal rains in the summer breeding areas were expected to lead to small-scale breeding in the northern Sahel. Moving into November, breeding continued in Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen, while the summer season ended in the northern Sahel and the winter season began along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts. Control efforts intensified in these regions, and above-normal rains in winter breeding areas were expected to lead to further breeding in coastal regions.

In December, outbreaks developed in Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Sudan, marking the first generation of the winter season along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts. Control operations were underway in these regions, and above-normal rains were expected to continue, potentially leading to a second generation of breeding. By January, outbreaks persisted in Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Sudan, with some locusts spotted in other countries. Control efforts significantly increased, particularly in Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, and Somalia, with additional control measures in Sudan and a few operations in Mauritania. The second generation, including breeding, hatching, groups, and bands, was expected to continue along parts of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts. Throughout this period, the situation remained challenging, with efforts focused on mitigating the impact of desert locusts on agriculture and livelihoods in affected regions. Continued monitoring and response are crucial to managing this ongoing threat.

Climate extremes related events

Drought in the Eastern Africa: For the reporting period from October 2023 to January 2024, rainfall deficits were reported in Eastern Africa, primarily in October (Figure 5.4). During this month, regions such as central Ethiopia, western Uganda, and northern Rwanda were on alert due to vegetation stress caused by the lack of rainfall. However, in the subsequent months, drought conditions weakened, which may have alleviated the vegetation stress in the region.

Figure 5.4 Drought conditions for October 2023 in Eastern Africa (Source: https://droughtwatch.icpac.net/)

Cold spell in Denmark and the Baltic Sea Region: In Denmark, a rapid drop in temperature followed heavy rainfall, leading to frozen, waterlogged fields that mechanically damaged winter crops in certain areas. The Baltic Sea region also experienced a significant temperature decline at the end of December and beginning of January, likely causing frost damage to winter crops, especially in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, where snow cover was thin. Damage to crops in other regions affected by the cold spell is expected to be minimal, either because the very cold weather lasted only briefly (one or two days) or because crops were protected by a thick layer of insulating snow.

Rainfall deficit in western Mediterranean regions: Significant rainfall deficits were observed across various western Mediterranean regions, including the Mediterranean coast in Spain, several parts of central and southern Italy, southwestern Romania, Greece, Cyprus, central Turkey, and the Maghreb region. In Sicily, Italy, persistent drought conditions adversely affected the biomass accumulation of winter crops. Spain also faced ongoing rain deficits in its Mediterranean coastal areas, hampering the sowing and initial growth of winter cereals. Cyprus experienced a combination of rainfall shortages and record-high temperatures, which negatively affected barley development. In the Maghreb region, below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures since the beginning of the winter crop season led to below-average crop growth and development in all agricultural areas of Algeria, as well as significant parts of Morocco and Tunisia.

Record-breaking drought in the Amazon: The combined effects of the El Niño phenomenon, deforestation due to human activities, and climate change have significantly altered precipitation patterns, leading to a record-breaking drought in the Amazon rainforest. While there was a decrease in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in the first half of 2023, this reduction followed years of extensive destruction. Farmers have been clearing trees to expand agricultural land, resulting in an estimated 50% increase in deforestation over the past 40 years, with a major portion of this occurring in the Brazilian Amazon. The impacts of this widespread deforestation are evident not only in the loss of valuable rainforest but also in the agricultural sector. Crops such as maize, cassava, cabbage, and beans have been adversely affected. The CropWatch agronomic indicators provide a detailed picture of crop conditions throughout the monitoring period from October 2023 to January 2024.

Low water levels in the Lake Titicaca: In south America, the double effects of El Niño and climate change a leading to a rapid and significant decreases in the water levels in Lake Titicaca - the highest navigable lake in the world and the largest in the region. These decreases are happening after an unprecedented winter heatwave. The shocking reduction on water levels in the lake, has affected not only the entire agricultural sector in the region, but also the fishing and tourism are affected. Withing the agriculture sector, regional authorities have reported that crops suffered severely in the last season. The vast majority of quinoa and potato crops, both staple foods locally, were affected, as well as the oats used to feed livestock.

Drought stage in Afganistain:The decrease in precipitation, coupled with the absence of snow, led to a drought stage in Afghanistan from October 2023 to January 2024. During this period, many areas of the country received precipitation around 60% to 90% of the average, with northern and eastern areas receiving precipitation below 60% of the average. This precipitation deficit caused crops planted in October 2023 to experience water stress in these regions, mainly due to below-average water for irrigation activities. Additionally, winter wheat planting was halted during this period due to the lack of ideal soil moisture conditions for planting in the eastern and western regions of the country, with a particular focus on the provinces of Herat and Nangarhar. Besides the lack of moisture for crop development, information also reveals that in some regions of the country, particularly in the provinces of Kunduz and Baghlan, crops planted in October 2023 were also damaged by pests, which could have a significant impact on expected productivity.

References

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https://www.fao.org/locust-watch/information/bulletin/en

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