The first quarter CPI time series from 2019 to 2024 illustrates a dynamic pattern in the global crop production situation. The series peaked in 2020 with a CPI of 1.13 (Figure 5.1). This CPI value is associated with an actual increase of 0.7% in the global production of the main crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybeans). Since the peak in 2020, the CPI has shown a downward trend in the following years, with values falling from 1.0 to 0.94. These changes correspond to the actual shifts in global production of major crops: an increase of 0.4% in 2021, a decrease of 1.3% in 2022 and a slight recovery with an increase of 0.5% in 2023.

In the first quarter of 2024, the CPI fell further to 0.91, continuing the downward trend observed in previous years and suggesting a cautious outlook for global crop production. However, the decline in the CPI also coincides with the off-season for crop production in the Northern Hemisphere. Extensive snowfall in late 2023 and early 2024 may have exacerbated the negative assessment, which is partly based on satellite images. In summary, while current CPI trends point to potential challenges, the global agricultural production landscape for 2024 requires continued vigilance and will be affected by seasonal and climatic shifts in the coming months.

The CPI spatial distribution map for the first quarter of 2024 provides a geographic perspective on the current state of crop production in different agroecological zones around the world (Figure 5.2). The map shows considerable variation in CPI scores, with regions such as Türkiye, Argentina, the central and western United States, southeastern China, and Southeast Asia having very favorable conditions for agriculture. In contrast, areas such as the northern Black Sea, the northern Mediterranean, Maghreb, Canada, the US corn belt, northeastern and central Brazil, and Australia have less favorable conditions.

Figure 5.1 CPI time series for first quarter from 2019 to 2024

Figure 5.2 CPI spatial map for global cropland in agro-ecological zones