Chapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS— as those used in Chapter 1, and combines them with the agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)— to describe crop condition in six Major Production Zones (MPZ) across all continents. For more information about these zones and methodologies used, see the quick reference guide in Annex B as well as the CropWatch bulletin online resources at http://www.cropwatch.com.cn/htm/en/bullAction!showBulletin.action#.

2.1 Overview

Tables 2.1 and 2.2 present an overview of the agroclimatic (Table 2.1) and agronomic (Table 2.2) indicators for each of the six MPZs, comparing the indicators to their fifteen and five-year averages, respectively. The text mostly refers simply to "average" with the averaging period implied.

Table 2.1 Agroclimatic indicators by Major Production Zone, current value and departure from 15YA (Januray-April 2024)

Note: Departures are expressed in relative terms (percentage) for all variables, except for temperature, for which absolute departure in degrees Celsius is given. Zero means no change from the average value; relative departures are calculated as (C-R)/R*100, with C=current value and R=reference value, which is the fifteen-year average (15YA) for the same period (January to April) for 2009-2023.

Table2.2 Agronomic indicators by Major Production Zone, current season values and departure from 5YA (Januray-April 2024)

Note: See note for Table 2.1, with reference value R defined as the five-year average (5YA) for the same period (January to April) for 2019-2023.

Central Europe and western Russia have the highest CPI at 1.11. This region has moderate precipitation and warmer temperatures, which are conducive to crop growth. Coupled with high cropland utilization rates and advanced agricultural techniques, the agricultural production outlook is favorable. 

North America's CPI value reaches 1.05, indicating a good agricultural production situation, mainly due to favorable agrometeorological conditions and high cropland utilization rates. Crop conditions and yield expectations are above average. 

South America's CPI is 1.00, indicating a normal level of agricultural production. Although precipitation in this region is significantly lower, crop conditions are fair, and almost all arable land is cultivated, with yields expected to be close to average. 

Western Europe's CPI is 0.99, with overall crop growth conditions close to average. 

South and Southeast Asia‘s  CPI is 0.93, as crop growth is affected by factors such as drought (51% reduction in precipitation). If the drought persists, summer crop yields may decline.

West Africa has the lowest CPI at only 0.91, and the crop production situation is not optimistic. Precipitation has decreased significantly (by 41%), temperatures are higher (by 0.8°C), and biomass has decreased by 17%. Cropland utilization rates have declined, and crop growth is affected by drought, with yields expected to be below average.

Overall, North America, Central Europe, and western Russia have the best agricultural production prospects. Western Europe and South America are slightly inferior but still close to average, while South Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Africa are significantly affected by adverse factors such as drought, and agricultural production may face challenges. The agricultural situation in each region is closely related to agrometeorological conditions such as precipitation and temperature, and agricultural management measures will also affect yield trends to a certain extent.

Figure 2.1 Spatial distribution of CPI in six major production zones (MPZs) worldwide