This reporting period starts in January and ends in April 2024, which covers the main growth period of winter wheat, and the land preparation stage of summer crops. Overall, winter wheat is growing well due to favourable agro-climatic and agronomic conditions.

Agroclimatic conditions in North America were close to average, with slightly above-average rainfall and temperature (ΔRAIN +4%, ΔTEMP +1.3°C). Radiation was below average (ΔRADPAR -10%), resulting in above average biomass production potential (ΔBIOMSS +7%). Precipitation was stable and evenly distributed across North America, fluctuating around average levels in the Corn Belt and Great Plains. Temperature cluster analysis showed that temperatures varied considerably across the main winter wheat production area. After the mid-January cold snap, temperatures rose to 2°C above average in most areas, except in late March when there was a significant cooling. Temperatures then fluctuated around the 3°C above average line until the end of the period.

In North America, all agronomic indicators showed above average crop conditions. Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was 1% above average, the maximum VCI (VCIx) was 0.87 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.07. Favourable crop condition with VCIx above 1.0 was observed in the plains, with the exception of the western part of the plains. Winter wheat has already entered the grainfilling stage and, barring any extreme climatic events, above-average crop production can be expected. However, in western Kansas, rainfall has been well below average, reducing potential biomass by more than 20%. The drought in Kansas and northwest Texas was captured by the VHI minimum (VHIn).

In summary, CropWatch predicts above-average growth conditions for winter cereals during this monitoring period. An above average winter wheat production can be expected.

Figure 2.3 North America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, January - April 2024

(a) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles

(b) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles

(c) Cropped and uncropped arable land

(d) Potential biomass departure from 5YA

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) VHI Minimum

(g) CPI time series