This reporting period covers the main development period of summer crops: soybean, maize and rice. Also, the harvest of rice, early maize and early soybean was taking place in this period. Agronomic indicators showed a strong reduction in BIOMSS (-23%). A strong reduction in rainfall (-56%) and a positive temperature anomaly of +2.3°C could have affected biomass production. In addition, RADPAR (-1%) showed a slightly negative anomaly.  But good conditions for Maximum VCI (0.91 on average) and an almost complete cropped arable land (99%). Conditions varied across subregions, particularly in BIOMSS, where several states in Brazil (Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gearais, Goiás, São Paulo and Paraná states) showed strong reductions and the rest of the MPZ showed near average and above average conditions.

BIOMSS showed negative anomalies of -20% and less in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gearais, Goiás, São Paulo and Paraná states in Brazil. Lower reductions were observed in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states in Brazil, South East Paraguay, North Mesopotamia and South Pampas in Argentina. Above average conditions were observed in Center and North Pampas, South Mesopotamia, Chaco and Subtropical Highlands in Argentina and Uruguay.

Reductions in BIOMSS can be related to negative anomalies in RAIN observed during almost all the reporting period in West Mato Grosso (blue profile) and Center and East Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and São Paulo states in Brazil (orange profile). Both profiles showed strong negative anomalies in January, February and March, and increments in rainfall since end March. In Santa Catarina and Paraná states in Brazil, as well as in East Paraguay and North Mesopotamia in Argentina negative anomalies where observed from January to March, but with a lower magnitude than the previous profiles (light green profile), consistent with slight reductions in BIOMSS observed in this area. Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, Uruguay, South Mesopotamia, Pampas, Chaco and Subtropical Highlands in Argentina showed almost no anomalies from January to March, but showed a strong positive anomaly during mid-April. This is in line with external weather reports about a great flooding event in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil since late April.   

Not only rainfall reduction, but also high temperatures can explain low BIOMSS values, as water stress is expected under these conditions. This was the case for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo and Paraná states in Brazil where strong positive temperature anomalies were also observed during the entire  reporting period (red and blue profiles). The rest of the MPZ showed three similar profiles with some temporal variability, experiencing moments of slight positive and negative temperature anomalies (light and dark green and orange profiles).

Maximum VCI showed a different pattern, as most of the MPZ showed values near the maximum NDVI observed in the last decade (higher than 0.8), except for part of South West Pampas which showed quite low values (lower than 0.5). This low VCIx values can be explained by the uncropped area observed in this region. The rest of the MPZ area was fully cropped. 

Similarly to the last reporting period, situation in the most northern MPZ was poor, with strong negative anomalies in BIOMSS and rainfall, and positive anomalies in temperature. Normal conditions for crop development were mostly observed in the rest of the MPZ. It also needs to be considered that external weather reports noted strong flooding events in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil at the end of April which could have affected crop production there.  In this context, below average crop production is expected in several states of Brazil, while in the rest of the MPZ better conditions for crop growth and development are expected, with the exception of some areas in South Pampas in Argentina that remained uncropped. Overall, in most major production areas, the temperature and precipitation are suitable, and the crops are growing well. The CPI is 1.00, indicating that the crop production condition is normal.

Figure 2.3 South America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, January - April 2024.

a) Potential biomass departure from 5YA.

b) Maximum VCI

c) Cropped and uncropped arable land.

d) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles. e) Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm).

f) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles. g) Profiles of temperature departure from average (°C).

g) country level production index