Chapter 3. Core countries

3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 46 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit

into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this sector. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro-ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well. 

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 47 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are being dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Together, they are supplying three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Brazil has substantially increased its production in recent years, whereas Ukraine’s export has been hampered by the Russian invasion. In Argentina, conditions were much more favorable than a year ago, and a stark increase in production can be expected. In Brazil, most maize production takes place in the second part of the rainy season, after the harvest of the soybean crop. Rainfall was generally below average but still sufficient to produce a normal crop. Conditions for maize production were average in Kenya, Uganda and northern Malawi. However, all other countries in southern Africa were affected by a severe drought that started at the peak of the rainy season. In Zambia, a total crop failure resulted and production in the neighboring regions was also greatly reduced. In South Asia, maize production during the dry winter months is irrigated and the drought had little impact on maize production in Bangladesh. However, in other parts of southeast Asia, maize production was negatively impacted by the rainfall deficit caused by El Niño.

Rice: Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India. The region of irrigated dry season (Boro) rice production is limited to West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Assam. And Boro rice yields are much higher than those obtained in the Kharif (rainy) season. Another region with important dry season rice production is Southeast Asia. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2nd and the 3rd position of exporting countries. In these two countries, crop conditions dropped to below average towards the end of this monitoring period, due to the delayed onset of the rainy season. In Brazil, conditions were favorable in Rio Grande do Sul until heavy rains caused extended floods starting in late April, destroying rice crops and infrastructure. Rio Grande do Sul usually accounts for 70% of Brazil’s production. Conditions for rice production were more favorable in its neighboring countries. In the USA, good irrigation facilities in the South will help ensure water requirements for rice planting.

Wheat: During this monitoring period, wheat reached maturity in South Asia, where conditions were normal in India and Pakistan. In the Maghreb, severe drought conditions have negatively impacted wheat production. Conditions were better for the Eastern Mediterranean basin, and the Middle East, where rainfall levels were close to average. Winter wheat production in the USA, including the southern High Plains and California was benefiting from favorable weather conditions. Similarly, most of Central and Eastern Europe has been benefiting from above-average rainfall. Excessive rainfall in October had prevented planting on some fields in France and Germany. But farmers have been compensating by planting spring cereals in February and March. In China, conditions for winter wheat production were favorable, as its wheat has been benefitting from above-average precipitation.

Soybean: In the USA, Canada and Ukraine, soybean sowing started at the end of this monitoring period, in late April. Soil moisture conditions are mostly favorable in these countries, but in Ukraine, the war causes high uncertainties for its production and export. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay produce more than half of the world's soybeans traded on the international market. Soybean production in these countries generally benefitted from average rainfall conditions, although the drought in Brazil limited its production. Southern Africa is a suitable region for soybean, but drought conditions caused crop failures in Zambia and neighboring regions. Reduced production has to be expected for South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and southern Malawi. Bangladesh, as well as southeast Asia, were also affected by high temperatures and rainfall deficits, resulting in reduced production for the domestic market.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In Argentina, rainfall was above average in all crop production regions, causing favorable conditions for wheat, maize and soybean production. In Brazil, most states had a severe rainfall deficit exceeding 30%. However, rainfall levels are generally high and sufficient for crop growth during the rainy season, and therefore, the impact on crop production was limited. In Central America and Mexico, drought conditions prevailed. They impacted its irrigated production of maize and wheat, since the reservoirs had generally low water levels at the beginning of the dry season. In the USA, the western states, as well as Texas and Oklahoma, benefited from above-average rainfall, causing favorable conditions for winter wheat. In the Horn of Africa, rainfall was average, benefitting maize production in Kenya and Uganda and Tanzania. However, a server drought caused widespread crop failures in many regions in southern Africa. The countries bordering the Mediterranean had a rainfall deficit. Central and Eastern Europa had average conditions. The Gangetic Plains and Southeast Asia had a severe rainfall deficit. While most wheat production in India is irrigated, rice production was negatively affected in southeast Asia. Most of the crop production regions of China benefitted from above average rainfall.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of January to April 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.2 Temperatures

In almost all parts of Earth, temperatures were average or warmer as compared to the 15YA. Only a few pockets had cooler-than-average temperatures. The strongest positive departures were observed for Brazil, the Mid and northeast of the USA, Europe to the Ural Mountains, southeast Asia, and southwest Africa. This indicates that the winter was generally mild in the winter wheat-producing regions of Europe.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of January to April 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in °C .

2.3 RADPAR

In Argentina, the provinces with above-average precipitation also had less sunshine. In Central America, solar radiation was above average, while in Canada and the USA, it was mostly below average. It was below average by more than -3% in Central and Northern Europe and Eastern China. Most of Africa and Southeast Asia had above-average solar radiation, especially the regions affected by drought conditions.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of January to April 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly tropical ones during the rainy season, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. In South America, biomass was above average by more than 10% in the crop production regions of Argentina. In Brazil, it was below average by more than 10%. For Central America and Mexico a negative departure resulted. Positive departures were estimated for most of the USA, Canada, Europe and China. For the drought affected regions of Africa, as well as southeast Asia, a strong decline by more than 10% below the 15YA was estimated.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of January to April 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.5 Crop Condition Index

From a global perspective, crop production in important agro-ecological zones such as Central and Eastern Europe, North America, and parts of Asia is relatively good, with CPI generally above 1.2. However, there are significant differences in agricultural production conditions between regions, especially in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, local areas in South America, and southwestern Australia, where CPI values in some agro-ecological zones are low, and the agricultural production situation is worrying.

In the Guinea Savannah zone of Nigeria in the Gulf of Guinea, West Africa, the CPI is only 0.61, and the agricultural production situation is grim. Precipitation in this region is 88% lower than the average level, and temperatures are significantly higher, resulting in a 21% lower biomass than the average level, severely affecting crop growth and yield. Similarly, the Jos Plateau in Nigeria also has a very low CPI (0.60). Precipitation in this region has decreased by almost 98%, biomass has decreased by 65%, and cropland utilization has decreased by 46%. However, this report just covers the start of the rainy season. Summer rains are expected to be more abundant.

The Southwest Hilly region (CPI=0.67) and the Mekong valley between Tonle-sap and Vietnam border(CPI=0.82) in Cambodia, Southeast Asia, also face challenges in agricultural production. Precipitation in these two regions has decreased by 79% and 95% compared to the average level, and temperatures are 1.4°C and 2.2°C higher, respectively, resulting in a 39% and 46% reduction in biomass. VCIx is around 0.7, indicating that crops are severely affected by drought.

The agricultural production situation in the Dry region of Afghanistan in West Asia (CPI=0.83) is not optimistic. Although precipitation in this region is 22% higher than the average level, temperatures are high, and the increase in biomass is limited (7%). CALF is 4%, far below the average level, indicating low cropland utilization, which may be related to the weak agricultural infrastructure in the region.

The Southwestern wheat area of Australia (CPI=0.31) is one of the regions with the lowest CPI. The main reason is that precipitation is 71% lower than the average level, temperatures have risen by 0.7°C, and estimated biomass has decreased by 19%. CALF has decreased by 58%, indicating that drought may have led to large-scale cropland abandonment.

Drought is a common problem in the above-mentioned agro-ecological zones. Due to a lack of precipitation and higher temperatures, crop growth is hindered, and CALF has decreased, resulting in a severe agricultural production situation. These regions urgently need to strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction, enhance agricultural disaster resistance capabilities, and improve agricultural resource utilization efficiency to stabilize agricultural production.

Figure 3.5 Spatial distribution of CPI in global agro-ecological zones (AEZs)