As shown on the phenology map, winter wheat was sown in October and November and was in the growing stage during this monitoring period. Spring wheat sowing started in March.

The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN was 314 mm, 5% above average. The TEMP was 5.7°C, at the average level. The RADPAR was 936 MJ/m², 3% below average. The BIOMSS was 476 g DM/m², at the average level. Overall, the agro-climatic conditions during the monitoring period were below average because of the drought conditions observed already during the previous monitoring period. The rainfall deficit lasted until March. Heavy rains in April improved the total rainfall for this monitoring period to average levels. CALF was only 7%, 50% below the average level. Crop conditions were generally below average.

The NDVI-based crop condition development graph clearly showed that crop growth was significantly below average, with a VCIx of 0.37 and a CPI of 0.84, indicating unfavorable agricultural conditions. Crop conditions were significantly below average in 33.2% of the total cultivated area, mainly in the northern regions of Herat, Badghis, Faryab, and southern Jowzjan provinces. In the southern provinces of Afghanistan, particularly Kandahar, crop growth was slightly below average. Only 5.9% of the total cultivated areas, mainly in Kunduz province, showed crop growth slightly above average. Despite relatively favorable agro-climatic conditions during the monitoring period, the significant decline in CALF is alarming as it can lead to a substantial decrease in grain production. Crop growth in irrigated areas was also significantly below average.

The agricultural production situation in Afghanistan is concerning, with significant portions of the cultivated areas experiencing below-average crop growth, particularly in the northern regions, while irrigated areas also experienceing below-average performance, indicating the dual pressures of water scarcity and lack of irrigation facilities, posing risks to food security.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

In the Central region with sparse vegetation, the RAIN was 288 mm, which is 7% above average. The TEMP was 1.7°C. Due to the increased precipitation, BIOMSS increased by 10%. However, the CALF was only 6%, significantly lower than the average by 19%. The CPI was 0.80, indicating unfavorable agricultural conditions in this region. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, crop growth remained below average levels. The VCIx was 0.41, indicating poor crop conditions in this area.

In the Dry region, the RAIN was 263 mm, which is 22% above average. The TEMP was 9.3°C, 0.4°C above average. The RADPAR was 1011 MJ/m², 4% below average. The BIOMSS was 496 gDM/m², an increase of 7%. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, crop growth was below last year's level and the five-year average. The CALF was only 4%. The VCIx was just 0.29, and the CPI was 0.83. Despite some favorable conditions like increased rainfall and biomass, the overall crop condition in the Dry region remains subpar, as indicated by the low NDVI, CALF, VCIx, and CPI values.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, the RAIN was 406 mm, close to the average level. The TEMP was 3.4°C. The RADPAR was 865 MJ/m², a decrease of 3% from the average. The BIOMSS was 465 gDM/m², also down by 3%. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, crop growth was significantly below average. Simultaneously, the VCIx was 0.44, and the CPI was 0.89, which also indicates poor conditions. Throughout the monitoring period, the CALF decreased by 51%, to just 11%.

In the Mixed dry farming and grazing region, the RAIN was 212 mm, marginally below average by 2%. The TEMP was 6.6°C, close to the average level. The RADPAR was 964 MJ/m², a reduction of 2% from the average. The BIOMSS was 464 gDM/m², down by 3%. The CALF showed a significant decrease of only 3%, which is a 72% decrease and the largest decrease among the four sub-regions. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, crop growth was significantly below average during the monitoring period. The VCIx was 0.32, and the CPI was 0.66. The extremely low VCIx and CPI indicate very poor agricultural production conditions in this sub-region.

5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

(j) CPI time series graph

2 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

3 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024