According to the crop calender for wheat, its harvest concluded in January. There was little agricultural activity from February to April. Sowing of the next wheat crop will begin in May. Agro-climatic indicators were generally average in Australia during this period. Both the rainfall and temperature were slightly above average (RAIN, +3%; TEMP, +0.6°C), while the radiation and biomass were average (RADPAR, 0%; BIOMSS, 0%). The CALF decreased slightly by 1%, to 40%. The maximum VCI was 0.67, and the CPI was 0.94.

Conditions varied slightly across the four major wheat producing states. In New South Wales conditions were positive, with above average rainfall (RAIN, +18%), slightly warmer temperature (+0.7°C), and slightly below average radiation (RADPAR, -3%). The abundant rainfall led to an increase in biomass (BIOMSS, +9%). The other 3 states all had below average rainfall (South Australia, -22%; Victoria, -1%; Western Australia, -71%), above average temperature (+0.3; +0.4; +0.6) and radiation (+5%; +6%; +4%). The low moisture due to the dry weather could affect subsequent wheat sowing, especially in Western Australia.

The NDVI profile was generally above average from January to February, but then fell well below average in March and April. The NDVI clustering map showed that the low NDVI in March and April was mainly observed for the southeastern states of Australia, including Victoria and New South Wales. The VCIx map showed that the VCI was very poor in the Western Australia.

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological zones (AEZs) for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 in NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), and the Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The Southeastern wheat area experienced favourable agro-climatic conditions. The rainfall increased by 11%, the temperature increased by 0.3°C, and the radiation also increased by 2%. The good conditions led to a slight increase in biomass accumulation potential (+2%). CALF increased by 4% as compared to the 5YA, while the maximum VCI and CPI were 0.74 and 0.89, respectively. The increased rainfall could be beneficial in the next period.

In the subhumid subtropical zone, rainfall increased significantly (+22%), temperature also increased (+0.6°C), while radiation decreased (-5%). As a result, the biomass accumulation potential was above average (+9). The CALF was above average, increasing by 16% to 53%. The VCIx was 0.79 and the CPI was 1.04. The condition in this AEZ was generally favourable.

The Southwestern wheat area experienced severe drought, with largely below average rainfall (-71%). Temperature was 0.7°C warmer and radiation was 5% higher. As a result, the biomass accumulation potential was well below average (-19%). Agronomic indicators were also poor. The CALF was only 7% and the maximum VCI and CPI were only 0.38 and 0.31 respectively. The condition of this AEZ was relatively poor and the drought could affect the following period.

Conditions in the Wet temperate and subtropical zone were average. All agro-climatic and agronomic indicators were average (RAIN, +1%; TEMP, +0.7°C; RADPAR, -1%; BIOMSS, +1%, CALF, +1, VCIx, 0.86; CPI, 1.02).

Overall, with the exception of Southwestern Australia, the agro-climatic indicators over the period, particularly the abundant rainfall, are favourable for the coming wheat sowing season in Australia.

Figure 3.1 Australia’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

Table 3.1  Australia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.2 Australia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024