This report covers the full cycle of dry winter season rice (Boro) and wheat crops, both of which are irrigated. The winter months were much drier than usual. Rainfall was 76% below average between January and April. The temperature was 0.1°C above the 15YA. The recorded RADPAR also was  above the 15YA (+1%). The resulting BIOMSS was below average (-19%). The below average rainfall affected the production of legume crops, such as mung bean, chick pea, soybean and lentils, which are usually grown without irrigation. The country was hit by a heat wave in April, which afffected harvesting and field work in general. VCIx was 0.90. The national NDVI development curve shows that crop conditions across the country were close to the 5YA unitil late March and below the 5-year average in April due to the extreme hot weather conditions. The nationwide NDVI spatial pattern shows that 74.4% of the cultivated area was close to the 5YA, this includes 13.9% that has a sharp drop in March due to cloud cover in the satellite image. 25.6% of the cultivated area, mainly distributed in the northern Bangladesh, was slightly below the 5YA. But almost all crops showed a worsening trend in April. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map shows that the conditions for the winter crops were unfavorable in various parts of the country with values lower than 0.8. CALF was 97%. In Bangladesh, most of the wheat, rice and maize crops are irrigated. Some of the schemes rely on ground water and other ones are fed by the water from the Ganges and Prahmaputma rivers. Therefore, irrigated crops also depend on water supply from the Himalayas, which is out of its control. Overall, crop conditions in the country were close to, but slightly below average.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ): the Coastal region(23), the Gangetic plain(24), the Hills(25), and the Sylhet basin(26).

In the Coastal region, both RAIN and BIOMSS were below average (-74% and -16%, respectively), TEMP was slightly above average (+0.1°C) and RADPAR was close to the 5YA The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were slightly below the 5-year average during this reporting period. CALF was at 88% and VCIx at 0.86. CPI was 0.97. They indicate unfavorable conditions in this region.

The Gangetic plains also experienced a large drop in rainfall (-73%). TEMP was above average (+0.2°C) while RADPAR was above the average (+2%). The resulting BIOMASS also decreased by 18% due to low rainfall. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average during the first three months, but it was below the 5YA in April. CALF was 98%, VCIx at 0.88 and CPI was 0.96, indicating slightly below-average prospects in this region.

In the Hills, rainfall was 68% below average. TEMP was also below average (-0.1°C) while RADPAR was above the 5YA (+1%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close and even above the 5YA during the monitoring period, and then below average in late April. BIOMSS was below average (-16%) with scarce precipitation. Although CALF was 97%, VCIx was 0.95 and CPI was 1.06.  This region was expected to have a slightly below average conditions.

In the Sylhet Basin, RAIN (-76%) was below, but TEMP and RADPAD were slightly higher than the 15YA (+0.2°C and 1%, respectively). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to average except for April. The BIOMSS was 24% below average, with VCIx of 0.92 and CALF at 99%, CPI was 0.99, indicating slightly unfavorable crop conditions.

Figure 3.9 Bangladesh’s crop condition, January -April 2024.

 (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profiles

(e) Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) rainfall profile (middle) and temperature profile (right) of Coastal region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) rainfall profile (middle) and temperature profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) rainfall profile (middle) and temperature profile (right) of Hills

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) rainfall profile (middle) and temperature profile (right) of Sylhet basin

(l) CPI time series graph

Table 3.9 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2024

Teble 3.10 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2024