During this monitoring period, winter wheat was the primary crop in the field, while the sowing of spring wheat began in late March. Rainfall and temperature were above the 15YA (RAIN +15%, TEMP +2.1°C), whereas solar radiation was below average (RADPAR -15%). The potential biomass was increased (+16%). Agronomic indicators showed a satisfactory vegetation condition (VCIx 1.02), while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased significantly by about 9%.  The NDVI profile showed very low values in January and February, presumably due to snow cover. Above average temperatures in March and April might have promoted the development of the crops.

Nationally, the spatial patterns of NDVI profiles showed that around 50.1% of cropped areas had approached the 5-year average levels in late Feburary, trending close to the average thereafter. According to the spatial distribution maps, VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8). Warmer than usual temperatues and higher rainfall had a positive effect on crop growth.  The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.33, indicating a good prospect.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) had more rainfall (+12%) and increased temperature (+1.9°C) than the 15YA, but radiation had decreased (-18%). The BIOMSS was expected to increase by 14%. The agronomic indicators showed satisfactory values: 93% for CALF and 1.06 for VCIx. The CPI value was 1.46. Crop condition was good.

In Central Belarus, the Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions experienced higher rainfall (+15%), higher temperature (+2.2°C), and below average radiation (-13%). The BIOMSS was expected to increase by 17%. Nearly all arable land was utilized for cropping (CALF at 95%), accompanied by a vegetation condition index (VCIx) of 0.99 and a crop production index (CPI) of 1.27. The overall situation for crops was favorable.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions), higher rainfall (+23%), higher temperature (+2.2°C) and lower radiation (-12%) were recorded. The BIOMSS was expected to increase by 17%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 97%, VCIx 0.99) were observed. The CPI value was 1.24. Conditions were favorable for winter wheat.

Figure 3.5 Belarus’s crop condition,  January 2024- April 2024.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

(f) Rainfall profiles 

 (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

(k) CPI time series

(l) CPI time series (North Belarus)

(m) CPI time series (Central Belarus)  

  (n) CPI time series (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.1 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January 2024- April 2024.

Table 3.2 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January 2024- April 2024.