The monitoring period from January to April 2024 of this bulletin covers the main growing periods for soybean, rice, and maize in the Center-South regions of Brazil. By the end of April, the harvest for these crops had been almost completed. The second season maize, known as "safrinha," which is mainly cultivated in the Center-South, reached its peak growing stage in March and April. The harvest is expected to begin in late May. The rice crop in the North and Northeast regions reached its peak growth stage in April. The sowing of maize in the Northeast and wheat in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul will commence at the end of the monitoring period.

Brazil was characterised by a complex array of climatic conditions across the country. Nationally, the country was experiencing a challenging dry situation, with precipitation significantly below the 15-year average (-49%) at 489 mm. This likely delayed the sowing and early development of second crops such as maize in Central-South. The warmer temperatures (TEMP +2.9°C) further accelerated the loss of soil moisture, resulting in a 25% below-average BIOMSS. In Brazil, only 12% of cropland is irrigated, and the growth of most crops depends on rainfall. The precipitation deficit lasted over the entire 2023-24 rainy season. It negatively affected crop growth, leading to an overall below-average crop condition as reflected by the consistently below-average vegetation greenness. However, while still trending below the 15YA levels, the deficit became smaller starting in February. This helped improve the NDVI trends, which reached close-to-average levels since mid-February. The spatial distribution of NDVI departure from the 5YA  illustrates the detailed spatial-temporal variation of the crop conditions. The central-south regions  presented the dominant pattern, with a slightly above average crop condition since October 2023 until April 2024, which is shown in blue colour on the clustering map. The remaining 51% of the cropland presented diverse crop situations in four groups. The dark green pattern is concentrated in Mato Grosso, where both early summer crops and second maize are cultivated. Crop condition underwent a significant change, from above average in November 2023 to below average in January and February 2024, before reversing to above average since March. The red and yellow pattern is most prevalent in northern Brazil, the Amazon region, andastern Santa Catarina. It has exhibited below-average conditions since the start of the summer crop-growing season. The light green pattern has shown below-average conditions from October 2023 to the end of January 2024, but has since recovered to above-average conditions. It is mainly distributed in the central east coast and the Nordeste. When only the peak growing season was considered during the four-month monitoring period, the VCIx map presented generally average to above average crop condition across the whole country. At the national level, VCIx was 0.92, slightly below the January to April 2023 period, but above the previous monitoring period. Almost all cropland was utilised during the summer cropping season with CALF at 5YA. It is also noteworthy that the heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul resulted in a severe flood which may have delayed the wheat sowing and even damaged the already germinated early sown crops.

In summary, the crop conditions in Brazil were at an average level from the end of February until the end of the monitoring period. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Brazil was 0.98, which was the same as for the previous bulletin and the same period of last year, but still below the 5YA. The output of maize and soybeans is projected to slightly decline in comparison to both last year and the five-year average, while rice production is anticipated to increase from the previous year. This is due to the fact that the majority of rice is irrigated and is therefore less susceptible to the effects of dry weather.

Regional analysis

In consideration of the variations in cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Brazil can be divided into eight distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZs). This bulletin focuses on six specific AEZs: Central Savanna (31), East coast (32), Mato Grosso zone (34), Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). The country's diverse regions each faced unique climatic impacts, with some areas, such as the Southern subtropical rangelands and the Parana basin, showing strong crop prospects, while others, such as the Central Savanna, Mato Grosso, and Nordeste, experiencing more adverse conditions. However, all AEZs presented high CALF and VCIx values with CPI values all close to 1.0, indicating the generally normal crop prospects.

Across all AEZs, there was a notable deficiency in rainfall, ranging from -20% to -79% compared to the average. However, the Southern subtropical rangelands exhibited a surplus of rainfall, with 48% above the average. Meanwhile, all AEZs presented above-average temperatures, ranging from +0.2°C (Southern subtropical rangelands) to +4.4°C (Central Savanna zone) above the 15-year average. Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) was generally consistent with the average, with the exception of the Southern subtropical rangelands, where PAR was 8% above the 15-year average. The unfavorable dry and hot weather conditions across all AEZs resulted in below-average biomass (-5% to -42%) compared to the 15-year average, with the exception of the Southern subtropical rangelands, which benefited from abundant rainfall and exhibited an increase of 14% in biomass.

Regionally, the Central Savanna, a vital agricultural area, experienced a significant reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature, which could potentially have a detrimental impact on crops, as indicated by the below-average NDVI profiles observed throughout the monitoring period. This reduction in biomass accumulation was estimated to be -42%. It is noteworthy that the heavy rainfall in early May in the AEZ resulted in flooding, which might have negatively affected the crop harvest and damaged some summer crops approaching maturity. The Coast region, characterised by a moderate climate, exhibited a moderate biomass production departure of 5% below the 15YA. This was despite a 25% departure in rainfall and a 2.1 °C increase above the 15YA.

Mato Grosso, a significant agricultural hub, was affected by reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, which negatively impacted crop health as evidenced by negative NDVI departures. The Nordeste region, characterised by semi-arid conditions, also encountered challenges due to decreased rainfall and increased temperatures, resulting in lower biomass production. In contrast, the Parana basin, despite a significant drop in rainfall, experienced less impact on crop conditions due to the availability of irrigation, as reflected in the NDVI profiles.

The Southern Subtropical Rangelands region experienced an unusual increase in rainfall (+48%) which, together with a slight increase in temperature, resulted in higher biomass accumulation (+14%) and good vegetation health. The extremely heavy rainfall resulted in localised severe flooding, potentially delayed wheat planting due excessive soil moisture levels and also damaged early sown wheat crops. However, the abundant rainfall also effectively replenished soil moisture, which eventually may benefit wheat crops in the non-flooded fields.

For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(d) Time series rainfall profile

(e) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(f) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(g) Statitsical analysis of crop condition categories

(h) CPI time series graph of Brazil

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.13 Brazil’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.14 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024