This reporting period covers the overwintering and spring green-up phases of the winter cereals. In late April, winter wheat and barley were at the late vegetative stages, and spring wheat and maize were being planted. Generally, at the end of this monitoring period, the crop conditions in Germany were average to above average in most regions based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators.

CropWatch agronomic indicators based on NDVI development graph at the national scale show that NDVI values were below average in January and February, but improved to near the 5-year average level by April. The low NDVI values in January and February can be attributed to prevented planting in the fall, due to excessive rainfall in October and November. Cloud cover in the satellite images or snow on the ground can also cause low NDVI values. These factors also contributed to the large negative departures in the spatial NDVI profiles. These observations were also confirmed by VCI values in the spatial distribution of maximum VCI map. It reached 0.88 at the national scale. Crop production index (CPI) was 0.97, indicating normal crop conditions.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that both total precipitation (ΔRAIN +16%) and temperature (ΔTEMP +1.9°C) were above average, while radiation (ΔRADPAR -10%) was below the average of the past 15 years. As can be seen from the time series of the rainfall profile, Germany experienced above-average precipitation except for mid-January, late February and March. Most of the country experienced warmer conditions during the monitoring period, except for January and late April, which were cooler than average. February was even above the maximum of the past 15 years. Due to plenty of precipitation and warmer-than-usual temperatures, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) increased by 16% at the nationwide level as compared to the 15YA. Sufficient precipitation in March and April favored the growth of summer crops in Germany. 

Generally, the agronomic indicators show below average conditions for most winter crops and close to average conditions for most summer crops in Germany. The crops are mainly rainfed crops in Germany, and irrigation rates are relatively low (7.2%). Average rainfall during the monitoring period had helped build up soil moisture content, thus limiting the negative impact of the radiation deficit during this period on the winter crops. Despite the low NDVI in the early growth stage of winter wheat, the later stage has recovered to the average level thanks to sufficient rainfall and warm temperatures, making it hopeful that the yield of winter crops will approach the average level.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, six sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Germany. They include: the Wheat Zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast (56), Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest (57), Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia (55), Sparse Crop Area of the East-German Lake and Heathland area (54), Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif (59) and the Bavarian Plateau (58). 

Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast is the major winter wheat zone of Germany. CropWatch agronomic indicators based on NDVI development graph show that NDVI values were below average before April and near the 5-year maximum level in April. Compared to the average of the past 15 years, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators RAIN (+38%) and temperature (ΔTEMP +2.1°C) were above average, while radiation (ΔRADPAR -16%) was below average. Due to favorable precipitation and temperature during the green-up period of wheat, BIOMSS was increased by 16%. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.85), indicating favorable crop prospects. CPI was 0.92. The crop production in this region is expected to be near average. 

Wheat and sugar-beets are major crops in the Mixed wheat and sugar-beets zone of the north-west. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except for late  April, when it passed the 5-year average. RAIN (+26%) and temperature (ΔTEMP +2.0°C) were significantly above average, while radiation (ΔRADPAR -15%) was below average. Due to favorable precipitation and temperature during the germination of wheat, BIOMSS was 16% above average. The area had a high CALF (99%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.86). CPI was 0.93.  The crop production in this region is expected to be average. 

The Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia is another major winter wheat zone. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that this region experienced above average precipitation (+23%) with warmer weather (ΔTEMP +2.1°C), while radiation was below average (ΔRADPAR -9%), which led to BIOMSS being 18% above average. The area has a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.86). CPI was 0.96. The crop production in this region is expected to be average. 

In the East-German Lake and Heathland Sparse Crop Area, above-average precipitation was recorded (ΔRAIN +9%). Temperatures (ΔTEMP +2.2°C) was higher than average, while radiation (ΔRADPAR -5%) was below average. As a result, BIOMSS is expected to increase by 17% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values improved to average levels by the end of this monitoring period. The area has a high CALF (99%) and the VCIx was 0.85 for this region. CPI was 0.94. The crop production in this region is expected to be near average. 

The cropland in the Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif also experienced above average precipitation (+19%) with warmer weather (ΔTEMP +1.9°C), while radiation was below average (ΔRADPAR -12%), which led to BIOMSS increase by 16%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below or close to average except in mid-March.The high Crop Land Fraction (CALF) at 99% indicates that almost all of the area is being used for crop production. The high VCIx of 0.89 indicates that the vegetation’s condition is much better than the long-term average, which is a strong indicator of good crop health. Similarly, the CPI of 0.99 suggests that the crop production is very close to the expected or normal levels.

Above average precipitation was recorded for the Bavarian Plateau (ΔRAIN +11%), with above-average temperature (ΔTEMP +0.2°C) and below-average radiation (ΔRADPAR -15%). Compared to the fifteen-year average, BIOMSS decreased by 1%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were above or close to average except in January and early February. The area had a high CALF (99%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.92). CPI was 1.03. The crop production in this region is expected to be above average. 

Figure 3.13. Germany’s crop condition, January-April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops in Germany

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the January-April 2024 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c) Maximum VCI for the January-April 2024 period

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns for Germany up to April 2024 according to local cropping patterns and as compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) of Germany comparing the January-April 2024 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(g) Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic Coast crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (right)

(h) Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (right)

(i) Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (right)

(j) East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profile (right)

(k) Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profile (right)

(l) Bavarian Plateau crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profile (right)

(m) CPI time series graph

Table 3.18. Germany agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2024

Table 3.19. Germany agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, January-April 2024