The monitoring period for this report spans from January to April, coinciding with the short rainy season (Belg) in central, eastern, and southeastern Ethiopia. During this period, the sowing of Meher (main season) maize began in these regions. Nationally, agroclimatic indicators showed favorable soil moisture conditions, with rainfall at +3%, temperature at +1.1°C, and biomass at 4 % deviation from the 15-year average (15YA), all within desirable ranges. Agronomic indicators also reflected a smooth sowing process for maize, with a significant increase in the CALF by 21% compared to the 5-year average (5YA). Adequate rainfall in April enabled farmers to initiate land preparation for main season crops. Furthermore, the NDVI and maximum VCI values were comparable to the 5YA, indicating favorable conditions.

At the national level, the Crop Production Index (CPI) recorded a value of 1.19, a decrease from the same period in 2023 (CPI 1.66), but still above the 5YA (1.12), suggesting normal crop production. The estimated BIOMSS 15YA departure was +4 %, indicating normal conditions. Late April data based on NDVI clusters revealed that more than 54% of cropland had a positive departure. Overall, prospects for the Meher season are favorable.

Regional analysis

This analysis focuses on five major cereal production regions: Central-northern maize-teff highlands (AEZ 63), Great Rift region (AEZ 65), South-eastern Mendebo highlands (AEZ 71), South-western coffee-enset highlands (AEZ 73), and Western mixed maize zone (AEZ 74).

Agroclimatic conditions in the Central-northern maize-teff highlands (63), and Great Rift region (65) indicate that  cumulative precipitation levels were close to the 15-year average (RAIN -3% and -4%), whereas in the South-eastern Mendebo highlands (71) it was slightly above the 15-year average (RAIN +2 %). The change in biomass was minimal compared to the 15-year average (BIOMSS +6 %, +2 % and +1 %). The NDVI exhibited a favorable trend, and there was a substantial increase in cropped arable land fraction (CALF +27 %, +61 %, and +20 %). VCIx values were 0.81, 0.98, and 0.92, indicating favorable conditions. The Crop Production Index (CPI) for these regions are (CPI 1.15, 1,74, and 1.44) which is favorable for crop production.

In the South-western coffee-enset highlands (73) and Western mixed maize zone (74), precipitation levels were slightly higher than the 15-year average (RAIN +15 % and +6 %). Biomass estimates were almost the same as the 15YA (BIOMSS +4 % and 3 %). The cropped arable land fraction remained mostly unchanged, and crop production in these two regions was normal with CPI value 1.07.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                     (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall pofile

(g) Time series temperature pofile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands (left) Great Rift region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-eastern Mendebo highlands (left) and South-western coffee-enset highlands (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western mixed maize zone)

(k) National CPI Time Series in Bulletin 2

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2024

Table 3.24 Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA Jan 2024 - April 2024