The period from January to April in 2014 covers the dry season. Harvest of  summer rice and corn concluded in January. Wheat and winter rice reached maturity in March and April. 

The line graph of NDVI-based crop growth process shows that the crop conditions continued to be below average from January to April, except in March, during the grainfilling period of wheat. The overall maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) in India was relatively low at 0.82. From the spatial distribution of VCIx, it can be seen that the values were below 0.8 in the Agriculture areas in Eastern Coastal region and  Western coastal region. From the spatial clustering NDVI anomaly map, it can be seen that crop growth was close to the average in March, but lower than the average levels in January, February and April. There was a serious drop in January for 8.7% of the area which is close to Himalaya mountains. This was due to fog. Compared with the average level of the same period in the past 5 years, the proportion of cultivated land was at a normal level. The crop production index was 0.93, indicating a slightly negative departure in crop production during the current season. This was due the rainfall deficit by 33%. However, most winter crops are grown under irrigation, and thus the lack of rainfall had little impact on the cropped land. Temperature was slightly higher and PAR was lower. These factors caused a potential decrease of 4% in biomass. Overall, conditions for the cereal crops were close to average.

Regional analysis

According to crop cultivation system, climate zone, and terrain conditions, India is divided into 8 agricultural ecological zones, namely the Deccan Plateau region (94), the eastern coastal region (95), the Ganges Plain region (96), the Assam and Northeast regions (97), the Rajasthan and Gujarat agricultural regions (98), the western coastal region (99), the northwest arid region (100), and the western Himalaya region (101).

The NDVI in the Deccan Plateau and West Himalayan was close to average levels. In the Deccan Plateau, irrigation helped sustain crop growth. Therefore, the departure of precipitation(-20%) had little influence on the crop growth and CPI was still 1.02. In the West Himalayan, there was -10% departure of biomass and it had the lowest CPI at  0.87. The NDVI fluctuated with lower values in late January and late April and higher values in early February. The agricultural meteorological indicators show continuous precipitation occurred from the late dekad of January to middle dekad of February, three dekads of March, and middle to late dekad of April. There was also less precipitation in Rajasthan and Gujarat agricultural regions and northwest arid region from January to April. In that state,  agricultural production depends on irrigation. The NDVI in the Rajasthan and Gujarat agricultural regions and northwest arid region trended below average, but the estimated biomass increased by 2% and 5%. Cropped arable land fraction increased by  8% and 13% respectively, as compared to the 5YA. The CPI of both regions was 0.95.  

The NDVI from January to April shows that overall crop growth in Western coastal areas, Eastern coastal region, Gangetic plain and Assam and north-eastern regions was below the multi-year average condition, especially in April. The biomass departures of Eastern coastal areas and Assam and north-eastern regions were -3% and -22%. The lower estimates were caused by negative departures of rainfall by -7% and -54%.  Cropped arable land fraction departures were -2% and -1% below the 5YA. The CPI of Eastern coastal areas and Assam and north-eastern regions were 0.83 and 0.86. The biomass departure of Western coastal areas was 1%,  due to the 15% precipitation increase. However, cropped arable land fraction departure was -10% and CPI was  0.73. By contrast, the biomass departures of the Gangetic plain was -9%. It was due to the seasonal precipitation departure by -43%. The cropped arable land fraction increased by 2% and the CPI of Gangetic plain reached 0.97. 

Figure 1. Crop growth during January to April in 2014

(a) Phenological calendar of major crops

(b) Crop growth NDVI profile

                                                                     (c) Maximum vegetation condition index

(d) Spatial cluster of NDVI anomaly（compared with 5-year average）  (e) Profile of NDVI spatial cluster

(f) CPI in India

(g) Precipitation profile

(h)  Temperature profile

(i) crop growth NDVI profile (Deccan Plateau, Western Himalayan region and Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat, North-western dry region) 

(j) crop growth NDVI profile (Western coastal areas, Eastern coastal region,Gangatic plain and Assam and north-eastern regions) 

Table 1. Agricultural meteorological indicators in 8 ecological zones in India during January to April in 2024 against the same period as the past 15 years

Table 2 Agricultural meteorological indicators in 8 ecological zones in India during January to April in 2024 against the same period as the past 5 years