This monitoring period encompasses the vegetative and early reproductive stages of winter wheat. Rice planting commenced in April. In Iran, over 50% of cropland is irrigated. However, sufficient rainfall is essential for replenishing dams and groundwater. Nationwide, the accumulated rainfall was slightly below average (RAIN -1%), radiation was at average level, and temperature was above average (TEMP +0.5°C). The BIOMSS index was also at average level. The national average of maximum VCI index was 0.66, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 2% as compared to the recent five-year average. The national Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.10, indicating normal crop production conditions. 

According to the national NDVI development graphs, on about 82.5% of the cropland (marked in dark green, orange and red) crop conditions were at or above average throughout the monitoring period. The remaining cropland experienced some fluctuations. Crop conditions on approximately 10.2% of the cropland (marked in light green) gradually declined from above average to below average from the beginning of the monitoring period to the end of February, and then gradually recovered to average, mainly distributed in southern part of East Azarbaijan, eastern part of West Azaibaijan, western part of Zanjan, and northern part of Kordestan. 7.3% of the cropland (marked in blue) had average crop conditions at the beginning of the monitoring period, dropped to below average in late Janurary, and gradually recovered to average from early Feburary on, mainly distributed in northern part of East Azarbaijan, Ardebil and Gilan, and western part of West Azarbaijan and Kordestan. The sharp drops in NDVI for the abovementioned regions might have been due to the cloud cover. In general, the conditions for the winter crops were close-to-average

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (104), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (103).

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (104) region, NDVI profiles show a similar change of patterns as for the whole country. The accumulated rainfall was 235 mm (1% below average), while temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +0.6°C, RADPAR +1%). The influence of temperature exceeded that of rainfall and radiation, which resulted in a increase of BIOMSS by 1%. CALF increased by 4%. The average VCIx was 0.71, and the average CPI was 1.12. Conditions can be assessed as close-to-average.

Crop conditions in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (103) region were below the five-year average throughout the whole monitoring period. This region experienced above average rainfall (RAIN +11%) and received less sunshine (RADPAR -1%). The temperature was above average (TEMP +0.6°C) . BIOMSS increased by 5%. The CALF decreased by 7% compared to the five-year average. The national VCIx (0.56) was quite low, and average CPI was 1.03, indicating the below average to average crop conditions and unpromising outlook for winter crops in this region.

Figure 3.21 Iran’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile

(g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid to sub‐tropical hills of the west and north region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region)

(j) Iran time series of Crop Production Index (CPI), January - April 2024

Table 3.33 Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.34 Iran's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024