Kenya experiences two distinct rainy seasons: the long rains extend from March to late May, and the short rains occur from late October to December. Maize cultivation takes place during both the long and short rainy periods, while wheat is grown during the long rains. During the monitoring period from January to April 2024, the short rain maize had been harvested, and the planting of long rain maize had commenced, with the wheat planting scheduled to begin in May.

At the national scale, accumulated precipitation was 407 mm, 9% below average. The national rainfall profile indicates that precipitation levels were above to the 15-year average in January and April, and below the 15-year average in February and March. The lower precipitation in March may lead to a delay in long rain maize planting. Therefore, conditions for the short rains maize were more favorable than for the long rains maize. Based on the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, most regions have NDVI values close to the average. However, the NDVI in the central region of Kenya (the dark green area) is significantly lower than the average in February, which may be related to the harvest of maize during the short rainy season. The national average VCI value reached 0.96, CPI was 1.21 and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 4% as compared to the 5YA. In brief, the national crop condition is normal. 

Regional analysis 

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Kenya can be divided into four sub-national agro-ecological regions: the coast region (113), the highland agriculture zone (114), the nothern rangelands region (115), and the south-west region (116).

In the Coast Region, there was a 27% increase in precipitation compared to the average, with temperatures and RADPAR slightly above normal levels. BIOMSS showed a 14% increase from the 15YA. The maximum VCI reached 0.95, CPI stood at 1.29, and CALF rose by 10% to reach 100%. Moreover, the NDVI curve above the 5YA. Overall, crop conditions in the coastal area have shown improvement from the previous year, benefiting from abundant rainfall that has created favorable conditions and promising prospects for both livestock and crop production.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 444 mm of rain, which was slightly below the 15YA (-6%). The precipitation in February and March was below the 15YA. The lower rainfall had a negative impact on the growth and harvest of maize during the short rainy season, resulting in a lower NDVI value in March compared to other months. However, overall, the NDVI value was slightly higher than the 5YA. The maximum VCIx value reached 0.95 and CPI was 1.23. In general, crop growth was slightly affected by drought but was better than in previous years.

In the Nothern rangelands region, precipitation was above average at 386 mm (+18%). The temperature was close to the 15YA (+1.3°C). BIOMSS was above average (+7%). The maximum VCIx was normal at 0.91. The precipitation in February and March was below the 15YA level. The continuous low rainfall from January to early March delayed the planting of long rain maize, but abundant rainfall since March has accelerated crop growth, resulting in good growth status exceeding the average level.

The South-west region includes the areas of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru and Embu. It had the largest negative deviation in rainfall (-66%). The precipitation in this region has been consistently low during the monitoring period. The low precipitation has resulted in a delay in crop growth. The CPI value is lower than in the other three regions. This indicates that the crop growth condition in this region is relatively poor, but better than in previous years.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, January-April 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                           (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                            (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                                                  (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the coast region (left), the Highland agriculture zone (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the Nothern rangelands region (left), the south-west region (right)

(j) RAIN condition development graph based on NDVI, the coast region (left), the Highland agriculture zone (right)

(k) RAIN condition development graph based on NDVI, the Nothern rangelands region (left), the south-west region (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,

January-April 2024

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure,

 January-April 2024