During this reporting period, harvests of several crops were completed: second rice in January, wheat in February and maize in April. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions were close to average.

According to the agroclimatic indicators, RAIN substantially dropped by 66% compared to the 15YA, while TEMP was higher (+0.6ºC), RADPAR was up by 3%. 86% of cropland was utilized, which was 10% higher than the 5YA. The shortage of rainfall mainly happened in April, with the temperature was significantly higher than 15YA at the same time. However, this was the dry winter season and most crops are grown under irrigation. BIOMSS decreased by 18%. NDVI values were average from January to March, and were slightly below average in April. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.94. The CPI value was 1.26, which represents an above-average agricultural production situation for this period.

As shown by the NDVI clusters map and profiles, the crop conditions across the country were heterogeneous. 27.7% of the cropland, distributed mainly in the Central Plain, showed above-average crop conditions during January and February, while they tended to be slightly below-average in March and April. 41.1% of the cropland showed average to above-average crop conditions for the whole period, which was distributed in the northern Central Plain and southern coast. The remining 31.2% of the cropland showed below-average crop conditions all the time. The maximum VCI maps showed similar distribution as the NDVI clusters map.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain (132), the Delta and Southern Coast regions (133) and the Hills (134).

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -87%), RADPAR (4%) was higher, TEMP (+0.8ºC) was also higher as compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS dropped by 13%. CALF showed that 79% of the cropland was utilized. The NDVI values were generally above average except for April. The VCIx was 1.00. The CPI was 1.57. Crop conditions for this region were above average.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had a below-average rainfall (RAIN -79%). RADPAR was 1% above average, TEMP was 0.8ºC above average. BIOMSS was down by 22%. The 89% of cropland was utilized. The NDVI values were below the 5YA during most of the period. VCIx was 0.88. The CPI was 1.00. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

The Hills region also had below-average rainfall (RAIN -60%). RADPAR increased by 3%, TEMP also increased by 0.5ºC. BIOMSS (-19%) was lower than the 15YA. 94% of cropland was utilized. NDVI followed the level of the 5YA before late March. The VCIx was 0.89. The CPI was 1.10. Crop conditions are assessed as below-average. 

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, January – April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f)  Rainfall Profile

(g) Temperature Profile

(h) CPI time series chart

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central plain region(left) and Hills region(right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2024

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2024