Located at high latitudes, Mongolia cultivates crops mainly during the summer months (May-September), focusing on spring wheat and potatoes. During this reporting period (January-April 2024), no crops were grown in the region. Only 3% of Mongolia's cropland is irrigated, which means that agro-meteorological conditions have a decisive impact on crop growth. Therefore, this bulletin mainly focuses on the impact of agro-meteorological conditions on the upcoming summer planting season.

According to CropWatch agro-climatic indicators, average TEMP was -11.6°C, slightly above the 15-year average (+0.7°C). RAIN was 79 mm, 13% higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 1% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 10% higher than the 15-year average, indicating that the overall conditions were favorable for crop growth. The CPI of 1.03 also suggests an optimistic production outlook.

The spatial distribution map of VCIx shows that the values in the Hangai Khuvsgul Region (137) and the Selenge-Onon Region (138) are mostly between 0.5 and 1.0, indicating relatively good vegetation conditions in these regions. In contrast, the VCIx values in the Central and Eastern Steppe (139) are mostly between 0.5-0.8, suggesting poorer vegetation conditions in these areas. Overall, the vegetation conditions in the northern and northeastern regions of Mongolia are relatively better, while the central and eastern regions require more attention and improvement. The NDVI departure cluster map shows that most regions in Mongolia had NDVI values lower than average from January to April 2024, with only 17.4% of the regions close to or slightly above average. The decline was more pronounced in February and March, approaching average levels in April. The VHIm map indicates that most regions in Mongolia have relatively good vegetation health conditions, but some areas are still affected by varying degrees of drought and require attention in subsequent monitoring and agricultural management.

The profiles of NDVI, precipitation, and temperature reveal that the agro-meteorological conditions in Mongolia from January to April 2024 were complex and variable but showed an overall recovery trend. The NDVI curve indicates that the values from January to March were significantly lower than the 5-year average and the same period last year, especially in January and February, when they were close to 0, mainly due to the extreme impact of the dual Dzud disaster, which brought heavy snow cover. However, with the rise in temperature and thawing of frozen soil in April, the NDVI rebounded strongly, indicating a recovery in vegetation vitality, which will benefit the crop sowing starting in May. The precipitation curve shows that RAIN from January to April this year was much higher than last year and the 15-year average, especially with a significant increase in March and April. The soil moisture was greatly replenished, creating favorable conditions for crop sowing and emergence, which explains the NDVI rebound in April. The temperature curve shows that TEMP from January to April 2024 was slightly higher than in 2023 and the 15-year average, with a notable increase in March and April. The rise in temperature accelerated the thawing of frozen soil and the recovery of vegetation, providing favorable thermal conditions for crop planting.

It is worth noting that although the overall agro-meteorological conditions in Mongolia were generally favorable during this monitoring period, the country experienced a severe "Dzud" event in the winter of 2023-24. "Dzud" is a specific term in Mongolian to describe an extremely cold winter climate phenomenon that often results in large numbers of livestock starving or freezing to death due to the harsh weather conditions. This climate phenomenon is unique to the Mongolian Plateau and has caused massive livestock deaths. According to reports from UN agencies, the ongoing "white and iron" dual Dzud disaster has reached a "critical" level, with over 90% of the country facing extremely high risk, and approximately 190,000 herder households are suffering from feed shortages, skyrocketing prices, and various hardships. This Dzud disaster has a direct impact on the livelihoods of farmers and herders (UN News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146422).

Overall, although Mongolia suffered from a severe dual Dzud disaster in the first quarter of 2024, the agro-meteorological conditions improved significantly after entering March and April. The rise in temperature and increase in precipitation jointly promoted the recovery of vegetation activity, which will lay a good foundation for the summer grain sowing in May. As the snow melts and soil moisture conditions improve, the farmland is gradually recovering to a state suitable for crop growth. However, considering the severe impact of the Dzud disaster, agricultural and animal husbandry production still faces many uncertainties. Continued monitoring of key agro-meteorological indicators is crucial to ensure the successful sowing and growth of summer crops. At the same time, close attention should be paid to the post-Dzud recovery and reconstruction, providing necessary humanitarian assistance to farmers and herders, and supporting the sustainable development of their livelihoods.

Regional Analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Mongolia can be divided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Altai (135), Gobi Desert (136), Hangai Khuvsgul Region (137), Selenge-Onon Region (138), and Central and Eastern Steppe (139). Among them, Altai and Gobi Desert have no cultivated land, so we mainly focus on the remaining three regions.

In the Hangai Khuvsgul Region, RAIN was 78 mm, 18% higher than the 15-year average for the same period. TEMP was -12.9°C, 0.9°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 2% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 7% higher than the 15-year average. According to the NDVI time series curve chart, the values in this region from January to March were much lower than the 5-year average and the same period in 2023, reflecting the adverse impact of the severe winter on vegetation activity. However, a significant rebound began in April, indicating that the vegetation is recovering.

In the Selenge-Onon Region, RAIN was 83 mm, 18% higher than the 15-year average for the same period. TEMP was -11.0°C, 0.6°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 1% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 11% higher than the 15-year average. The CPI of 1.12 indicates that the overall agricultural situation in this region is good. The NDVI curve chart for this region shows a similar trend, with significantly lower values from January to March compared to the 5-year average and last year's level, but a rebound starting in April, and the vegetation conditions are gradually improving. The positive CPI value suggests that despite the low NDVI in the early stage, the crop production outlook in this region is optimistic.

In the Central and Eastern Steppe, RAIN was 70 mm, 4% higher than the 15-year average for the same period. TEMP was -11.4°C, 0.4°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 2% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 16% higher than the 15-year average. The NDVI in this region remained lower than the 5-year average and 2023 levels from January to March but showed a significant rebound in April, indicating that vegetation activity is recovering.

Figure 3.34 Mongolia's crop condition, January 2024 - April 2024

Table 3.59 Mongolia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January 2024 - April 2024

Table 3.60 Mongolia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, January 2024 - April 2024