National Analysis

Maize and rice are the two main crops grown in Mozambique. The phenology of these crops indicates that the January to April monitoring period mostly covers the peak of the growing season in January, whereas harvest starts in March. This monitoring period also includes the sowing and growing stages of wheat, with its harvest anticipated in May and early June. In Mozambique, 95% of cultivated cropland relies on rainfed agriculture, and variations in rainfall directly impact crop production. During the reporting period, the country experienced the effects of El Niño, which led to a significant decrease in rainfall (RAIN -38%), with the total rainfall at the country level was only 501 mm. In key cereal-producing regions such as Sofala and Zambezia, the planting season was delayed by up to three weeks. Rainfall deficits persisted, and increases in temperature and photosynthetically active radiation by 0.9ºC and 4%, respectively, ultimately led to deteriorated vegetation and early senescence. Consequently, the total potential biomass production recorded a decrease of 17%.

The national crop conditions development graph based on NDVI reveals unfavorable crop conditions that persisted throughout the entire monitoring period. The spatial NDVI patterns compared to the five-year average (5YA) and the NDVI departure profiles indicate that only 40% of the cropped arable land in the country presented slightly above-average crop conditions. These regions include areas with irrigation activities, such as the Chókwè irrigation scheme in Gaza province and the sugar cane plantations in Sofala province. During this period, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) remained unchanged, while the recorded maximum VCIx was 0.93. With a Crop Production Index of 1.0,  and expected crop yield for the current harvest in Mozambique is projected to be close to the average.

Regional Analysis

Based on the national cropping system, topography, and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin (140), Northern High-altitude areas (141), Low Zambezi River basin (142), Northern coast (143), and the Southern region (144).

At the regional scale, the agroclimatic indicators reveal decreases in rainfall across all agroecological regions: 19% in the Buzi basin, 32% in Northern high-altitude areas, 51% in the Low Zambezia River basin, 23% in the Northern Coast, and 53% in the Southern region. Contrary to the rainfall trends, temperatures recorded increases in all agroecological regions, with the highest increase of 1.6ºC observed in the Buzi basin. Similarly, Photosynthetically Active Radiation also increased in all agroecological zones, ranging from 3% in the Northern high-altitude areas to 9% in the Buzi basin. Combined, these three indicators contributed to decreases in total biomass production by 29% in the Buzi basin, 26% in the Low Zambezia River basin, 21% in the Southern region, 12% in the Northern high-altitude areas, and 9% in the Northern Coast. The regional crop conditions development graph based on NDVI indicates that crop conditions were unfavorable in all agroecological zones during the entire monitoring period. During this period, the CALF was near the average of the past five years, and the maximum VCIx varied from 0.89 to 0.94. Regionally, the CPI varied from 0.89 in the Buzi basin to 1.04 in the Southern region.

Figure 3.35 Mozambique's crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop conditions development based on NDVI                                                  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA.            (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) National teme-series rainfall profiles                                                                    (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Crop conditions development graph based on NDVI - Busi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(i) Crop conditions development graph based on NDVI - Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Southern region

(k) Crop production index - National (left), and Buzi basin (right)

(l) Crop production index - Northern high-altitude areas (left)  and Lower Zambezi River basin (right)

(m) Crop production index - Northern coast region (left) and Southern region (right)

Table 3.61. Mozambique's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024.

Table 3.62. Mozambique's agronomic indicators by subnational regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January  - April 2024.