This report provides an overview of  the crop conditions for main- season maize, second-season maize, irrigated rice, and rainfed rice in Nigeria from January to April 2024. This monitoring period encompasses the harvesting stages of second-season maize and the irrigated rice in January and the sowing stage for the rainfed rice and maize (south/main) between March and April. During this period, the country experienced a prolonged dry season. Some rainfall usually starts in March, but this was not the case this year. It remained minimal until the end of this monitoring period. Hence, planting of the rainfed crops has been delayed. Agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall declined by 64% as compared to the 15YA, while accumulated temperature and radiation were slightly above average (ΔTEMP +0.6°C and ΔRADPAR 4%). Potential biomass is estimated to decrease by 36% above the 15YA. The NDVI development graph indicates unfavorable crop conditions with values below the 5-year average due to adverse agroclimatic conditions for most of the period. The NDVI departure clustering map shows that 53.7% of the total cropped land area, predominantly distributed across the country, remained consistently below average and slightly above in March. About 33.5% of the cropped area, sparsely distributed within the country showed above-average values in March. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 13% compared to its 5YA. Despite a favorable maximum VCI value of 0.73, the Crop Production Index (CPI) of 0.80 indicates crop production situation was below normal throughout the monitoring period.

Regional Analysis

Nigeria has nine sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climate, and topography: Sahel Savannah (152), Sudan Savannah (153), Guinea Savannah (147), Derived Savannah (145), Jos Plateau (148), Montane Forest (151), Lowland Rainforest (149), Freshwater Swamp Forest (146), and Mangrove Forest (150).  The Sahel Savanah is located in the country's North-East, followed by the Sudan Savanah, which covers the entire Northern area. The Guinea savannah is the largest, stretching from the Sudan Savanah to the Derived Savanah and spanning much of the country's central region. The Freshwater swamp Forest, Montane Forest and Mangrove Forest situated in the southern part of the country have few agricultural fields and  are therefore not being monitored.

In the Derived Savannah zone, agroclimatic indicators revealed a 75% decrease in rainfall compared to the 15YA while temperature and radiation increased (∆TEMP+0.9°C, ∆RADPAR +5%), resulting in a 20% decline in biomass. The NDVI development graph revealed that crop conditions in this zone were below the 5YA. CALF decreased below the 5YA by 4%. Maximum VCI was 0.81 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.85. All in all the crop production situation in this region was below normal.

The Guinea Savannah Zone experienced decreased rainfall by 88% compared to the 15YA, with above-average temperature and radiation (∆TEMP +0.5°C and ∆RADPAR +4%). However, biomass was reduced by 21% and the CALF by 36%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA. The maximum VCI was 0.71. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.61. These parameters indicate an unfavorable crop production situation for this region during the monitoring period.

Jos Plateau zone experienced decreased rainfall by 98% compared to 15YA, while temperature and radiation (∆TEMP +0.6°C and ∆RADPAR +5%) were above average. However, Biomass was reduced by 65% and CALF declined by 46%. The NDVI development graph also indicates that crop conditions were below the 5YA. The maximum VCI was 0.62, with a Crop Production index of (CPI) of 0.60, indicating an unfavorable crop production situation for this region during the monitoring period.

Lowland Rainforest Zone showed decreased rainfall by 58% compared to the 15YA, while temperature and radiation (∆TEMP +1.0°C and ∆RADPAR +3%) were with above average. Hence, Biomass was reduced by 27% and CALF declined by 1%. Based on the NDVI development graph crop conditions were below the 5YA. The maximum VCI was 0.86, with a Crop Production index of (CPI) of 0.85, indicating below normal crop production situation for this region during the monitoring period

In the Sahel Savannah Zone, no rainfall was observed. Temperatures were near average (∆TEMP-0.1°C), and radiation increased slightly (∆RADPAR 2%). These changes caused 100% decrease in biomass compared to 15YA. The CALF increased by 3%, and NDVI development graph showed crop conditions that were below the 5YA. The maximum VCI (0.69) and the Crop Production Index CPI (0.85) value indicate an unfavorable crop production situation compared with the 5YA.

In the Sudan Savannah Zone, rainfall decreased (89%), while temperature decreased slightly (-0.3°C), radiation increased (3%). Biomass production decreased (-63%) while CALF was reduced by 48%. NDVI development graph indicates that crop condition was below average.  Maximum VCI is (0.70) and CPI (0.70). They indicate an unfavorable crop production situation compared with the 5YA.

Figure 3. 37    Nigeria’s crop condition, January – April 2024

                                                                   (a)     Phenology of major  crops                                                          

  b)     Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

                                      (d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA    (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) CPI time series graph

                                           (g) Rainfall profiles                        (h) Temperature profile

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Derived Savannah, Right: Lowland Rainforest)                 

  (j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Guinea Savannah, Right: Jos Plateau )

          (k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Sahel Savannah, Right: Sudan Savannah)

                              Table 3.65  Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's 

                                              values and departure from 15YA. January – April 2024

                                Table 3.66    Nigeria's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s

                                             values and departure from 5YA, January -April 2024