The monitoring period covers most of the winter wheat cycle, beginning with the vegetative stage and continuing through to harvest. It also includes field preparation and maize sowing. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators indicated near average crop production potential between January and April as a whole.

Rainfall is not the major factor influencing crop production in Pakistan, primarily due to the high proportion of irrigated cropland, which accounts for 80% of the total. In comparison to the average from the past 15 years (15YA), recent rainfall was 1% below average, and the photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) was 1% below average. However, the air temperature (TEMP) during this period was slightly above average, with an increase of 0.1℃. The combined effect of these agroclimatic indicators resulted in an average biomass (BIOMSS) production. At the national level, rainfall from the previous monitoring period to January was below average. The air temperature during the same period exceeded the average, even reaching maximum values observed in the past 15 years. The combination of drier and warmer weather conditions led to below-average development of NDVI until late February. Subsequently, Rainfall gradually increased. Temperatures in March, the critical month for grainfilling of wheat, were not as high as last year. 

The spatial distribution of NDVI patterns and profiles revealed that 56.8% of the cropped areas were below average, particularly in the Northern Highlands, most parts of Punjab, and north of Sindh in late February. However, by March, only 23.8% of the cropped areas in the Northern Highlands remained below average. Despite experiencing relatively warm weather in January and February, the irrigation and more rainfall since March created favorable conditions for Punjab, the most important wheat production region of Pakistan. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased slightly by 2%. A lower CPI(0.97) value indicates a slightly unfavorable crop production situation in current period, but the crop production situation of this year is still higher than last year. Overall, crop conditions were slightly below average, but normal wheat production levels can be expected, especially since NDVI trended above average in March.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions:  the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sindh(155), the Northern Highlands(156) and the Northern Punjab(157).

In the Lower Indus River basin in South Punjab and Sindh, RAIN was 35% below average, TEMP was 0.1℃ below average, and RADPAR was 2% below average. The estimated BIOMSS departure was -5%. Crop conditions, as indicated by NDVI, were below average in January, indicating unfavorable conditions initially, but they improved to above average during the subsequent critical growth period. It was aided by rainfall. The CALF of 70% was above average by 4%. Overall, the CPI is 0.99, the prospects were satisfactory.

RAIN (+3%) and (+0.5℃) TEMP of Northern Highlands were both above average, RADPAR was below average by 2%. The region experienced warmer and drier weather, and the estimated BIOMSS departure was -2%. The NDVI development graph shows below-average crop conditions except for January and early February in part of the areas, especially in the north. This region had the lowest CALF of 49% among the three AEZs, 5% below the five-year average. Crop conditions were generally below average, and the CPI is low level of 0.88.

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded less rainfall than usual (RAIN -30%). TEMP (-0.8℃)  was below average, while RADPAR (-0%) was close to average. The combination of these factors resulted in below-average estimates of BIOMSS by 18% compared to the recent fifteen-year average. The NDVI development graph shows below average crop conditions from January to February, but subsequently improved to average levels during the critical grainfilling period of wheat. The region had a CALF of 86%, which was slightly below the 5YA by 2%.  CPI(0.97) was slightly lower than average. Overall, conditions were average for this important wheat producing state.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, January- April 2024

a) Phenology of major crops

b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

(c)  Time series precipitation profile

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       f) NDVI profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab)

j) National CPI time series

Table 3.57 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2024

Table 3.58 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2024