During the monitoring period, the second-season rice and second-season maize in the Philippines entered their harvesting period in January and February respectively, while sowing of the main season rice and main-season maize started  in April. Since mid-February, the Philippines experienced persistently above average temperatures together with low precipitation. Compared to the 15-year average, the precipitation (RAIN) was significantly lower by about 48%, while the average temperature (TEMP) was higher by approximately 0.5°C. Radiation (RADPAR) was slightly higher by around 2%. The combination of high temperatures and significantly low precipitation exacerbated soil moisture stress in  the Philippines, resulting in a significant decrease in potential biomass (BIOMASS) by about 23%. The impact of soil moisture deficiency was also evident in the NDVI time series profile of crops. Since mid-January, the NDVI of crops has been consistently below average, with the gap widening over time. Clustering results of NDVI departure also indicate that almost all arable land nationwide is experiencing a sustained decline in crop NDVI. Approximately 30.9% of arable land (represented by orange color) has experienced a significant and sustained decrease in NDVI since January, primarily distributed in Central Luzon Region, eastern of Mimaropa Region, Western Visayas Region, and western of Central Visayas Region. The remaining approximately 69.1% of arable land (represented by light green, dark green, and blue colors) has experienced a slight decrease in NDVI since early March. CALF (100%) remained near the maximum, whereas the VCIx was only 0.89  and the CPI was only 0.92. All in all, the crop production during this monitoring period was below average.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands, agro-ecological zone 158), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros, agro-ecological zone 159), and the Lowlands region (northern islands, agro-ecological zone 160). The CALF values for each zone are relatively stable, almost reaching 100%.

In the Forest region, the precipitation (RAIN) is significantly lower by about 43%, with an average temperature (TEMP) increase of approximately 0.5°C, and a normal radiation (RADPAR). Potential biomass (BIOMASS) has significantly decreased by approximately 20%. The lack of precipitation has resulted in a continuous decline in crop NDVI in this region since mid-February. The VCIx for this region is only 0.92, with a CPI of 0.95, indicating an overall below average crop growth condition.

For the Hilly region, there was a significant decline of around 68% in precipitation (RAIN), with an increase of approximately 0.3°C in average temperature (TEMP), and an increase in radiation (RADPAR) of about 2%. The impact of precipitation deficiency on this region is relatively greater compared to other regions, with a significant decrease in potential biomass (BIOMASS) of approximately 31%. Crop NDVI in this region has experienced a steady decline since mid-January. The VCIx for this area is only 0.88  and CPI was 0.89, indicating an overall lower crop growth condition.

In the Lowlands region, the precipitation (RAIN) was significantly lower by about 54%, with a slight increase in radiation (RADPAR) of 5%, and an increase of approximately 0.4°C in average temperature (TEMP). Similarly, there was a decrease in potential biomass (BIOMASS) of about 25% in this region. Crops in this region have also experienced sustained NDVI decline since January. The VCIx for this region is 0.86, with a CPI of 0.90, indicating an overall below average crop growth condition.

Figure 3.35 Philippines' crop condition, January-April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile (left) and rainfall profile (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lowland region (left) and in Hilly region (right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Forest region

(i) CPI time series

Table 3.61 Philippines' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January-April 2024

Table 3.62 Philippines' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, January-April 2024