Winter cereals (wheat, barley and rye) are the main crop that were grown in Poland during this monitoring period. The planting of summer crops started in April. Compared to the average of the last 15 years, RAIN was 16% higher, TEMP was 2.6°C higher, and RADPAR was 9% lower. The potential biomass was 19% above average. The low values of NDVI in January can be attributed to snow or cloud cover in the satellite images. Sufficient precipitation (January and February) and relatively warm temperatures (especially from late January to early April) helped NDVI reach close to the 5-year average level in March and the 5-year maximum in April. VCIx at the national scale was 0.94 and VCI values below 0.8 were mainly distributed in the western regions. CALF reached 99%, which was 1% higher than the average of the last 5 years. CPI was 1.04, indicating favorable crop growth conditions.

In general, benefiting from above average precipitation and temperatures, crop growth conditions were favorable and above average production can be expected for the winter cereals.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below. They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (162, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (163, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Precipitation and average temperature in the Northern oats and potatoes areas were above the average of the last 15 years (RAIN, +30%; TEMP, +2.4°C), RADPAR was 19% lower. These conditions resulted in a 17% increase in BIOMSS. NDVI recovered to the 5-year average in late February and rising to above the 5-year maximum in late April. CALF was 99%, which was 1% above the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.98, and CPI was 1.12, indicating good crop growth in this subregion.

Compared to 15-year average, RAIN and TEMP in the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area were 29% and 2.5°C higher, respectively, while RADPAR was 15% lower. BIOMSS increased by 20%. NDVI returned to the 2023-level in early February and recoverd the average of 5-yeay in early March, then rose to 5-year maximum level in April. CALF in this region reached 99%, which was 1% higher than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.89 and CPI was 0.99, indicating that the crop growth conditions in this region were normal.

In the Central rye and potatoes area, rainfall was 15% above the 15-year average, TEMP was 2.6°C higher, RADPAR was 9% lower, and potential biomass was 19% higher. NDVI recovered close to the 5-year average from late February to early April and reached the 5-year maximum level in late April. CALF was 99%, 1% above the 5-year average. VCIx reached 0.93 and CPI was 1.03, indicating favorable crop growth in this region.

Precipitation in the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area was 10% above the average of the last 15 years, TEMP was 2.8°C higher, RADPAR was 4% lower, and potential biomass was 21% higher. NDVI recovered close to 5-year average in late February, and rose above the 5-year maximum in early March and April. In late March, NDVI was close to the 5-year maximum. CALF in this subregion reached 99%, which was 1% higher than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.97, and CPI was 1.09. The crop conditions in this subregion were good.

Figure 3.40 Poland’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(h) Rainfall profiles

 (i) Temperature profiles

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.71 Poland’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.72 Poland’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024