The Russian Federation experienced a transition from winter to spring during the period from January to April, with snow starting to melt and spring vegetation gradually recovering. In Russia, a mere 2.7% of cropland is irrigated. Hence, precipitation has a big impact on crop production. Winter wheat was the main crop that was grown during  this period, while the sowing of spring wheat began in April.

In terms of agronomic indicators, the national average VCIx was 0.90, indicating generally good vegetation conditions. The CALF was 3% higher than the 5-year average. The overall CPI was 1.20, higher than the 5-year average of 1.11, indicating an overall agricultural production potential above the average level.

The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation conditions in Russia at the beginning of 2024 were lower than the historical average. From January to February, the NDVI values were close to 0, possibly due to snow cover during the harsh winter. In March and April, with rising temperatures and melting snow, the NDVI values recovered and reached the 5-year average. This indicates overall average prospects for cereal production in Russia.

The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 6.3% of the cropland was in above-average condition (blue), mainly distributed in southern and western Russia. 36.9% of the cropland was near average (green), while the remaining regions experienced varying degrees of below-average crop growth conditions. Significantly below-average regions (orange) accounted for about 12.5% of the cropland, mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions. The VHIn map shows that most regions in Russia had relatively good vegetation health, but some areas were still affected by varying degrees of drought and require attention in subsequent monitoring and management.

In terms of agro-climatic indicators, the TEMP was -3.5°C, 1.6°C higher than the 15YA. The RAIN was 216 mm, 4% lower than the 15YA. RADPAR was 6% lower than the 15YA. The BIOMSS was 12% higher than the 15YA . These indicators suggest that although the RAIN was slightly reduced, the higher TEMP and BIOMSS created favorable conditions for the upcoming growing season.

In early April 2024, southern Russia and northern, eastern, and western Kazakhstan experienced the most severe flooding in 70 years. The disaster was primarily caused by accelerated snowmelt during the spring flood season and heavy rainfall. The record-high snowmelt volumes and river levels in the Ural Mountains resulting in severe flooding in several regions, including Orenburg, Kurgan, and Tyumen Oblasts. Additionally, the collapse of a dam in the city of Orsk, Orenburg Oblast, further exacerbated the situation. The short-term impact of the floods on agricultural production at the country level is relatively limited, but the actual damage can only be fully assessed once the waters have receded.

Overall, the agro-climatic conditions in Russia during the reporting period were mixed, although most regions experienced favorable conditions while others faced challenges. The generally higher TEMP (TEMP +1.6°C) and moderate RAIN (RAIN -4%) laid a good foundation for the upcoming growing season. The NDVI and CPI indicators suggest that, at the national level, Russia can be expected to have a high-yielding agricultural season.

Regional Analysis

Russia can be divided into thirteen agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. This report focuses on nine main agricultural regions.

Central Russia (169)

Central Russia is one of the country's major agricultural regions, growing large amounts of winter wheat and other cereal crops. The RAIN was 6% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 1.4°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 22%. The BIOMSS was 13% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 7% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 1.08, and the CPI was 1.38. The NDVI curve shows that vegetation in this region began to recover in mid-March and increased significantly in April. Although the RAIN was slightly lower, overall, the favorable TEMP and abundant BIOMSS supported crop growth conditions.

Central Black Soils Area (170)

The Central Black Soils Area is known for its fertile black soils and favorable climatic conditions, making it one of Russia's most important agricultural regions. In the Central Black Soils Area, the RAIN was 14% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 1.8°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 9%. The BIOMSS was 16% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 7% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.94, and the CPI was 1.25. The NDVI curve shows that although the vegetation index in this region was generally lower than the 5YA, it recovered well in early April and reached the 5-year maximum at the end of April. Despite the deficit of RAIN, it was still sufficient to sustain crop growth, and the crop production prospects in this region are optimistic.

Eastern Siberia (171)

The Eastern Siberia region has a relatively small cultivated area, and agriculture has a low share in the regional economy. In Eastern Siberia, the RAIN was 13% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 2.0°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 5%. The BIOMSS was 19% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 1% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.87, and the CPI was 0.69. The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation activity in this region was low from January to March but recovered in April. Although the RAIN and RADPAR were low, the TEMP was favorable for crop growth.

Middle Siberia (172)

Agricultural production in the Middle Siberia region is limited by climatic conditions, and the cultivated area is small. In Middle Siberia, the RAIN was 2% higher than the 15YA, the TEMP was 0.7°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 2%. The BIOMSS was 2% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 47% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.74, and the CPI was 0.56. The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation in this region was below the 5YA throughout the reporting period, possibly due to lower RAIN and RADPAR. Although the agricultural production situation this season is not ideal, considering the low share of this region in Russian agriculture, its impact is limited.

Middle Volga (173)

The Middle Volga region is an important agricultural area in Russia, especially for summer crop production. In the Middle Volga, the RAIN was 3% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 1.8°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 4%. The BIOMSS was 21% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 21% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 1.01, and the CPI was 1.49. The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation in this region began to recover significantly in mid-March and maintained an upward trend in April. This indicates that the overall agro-meteorological conditions in this region were favorable, and crop yields are expected to be high.

Northern Caucasus (174)

Agricultural production in the Northern Caucasus region has a certain scale, mainly growing winter wheat and other cereal crops. In the Northern Caucasus, the RAIN was 21% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 2.2°C higher, and the RADPAR increased by 5%. The BIOMSS was 6% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was the same as the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.79, and the CPI was 0.97. The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation activity in this region was low from January to March but recovered in April. Although precipitation was low, the favorable effects of other conditions resulted in essentially normal crop growth prospects for this region.

South Caucasus (176)

The South Caucasus region has relatively mild climatic conditions, and agricultural production plays an important role in the regional economy. In the South Caucasian region, the RAIN was 18% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 1.4°C higher, and the RADPAR increased by 5%. The BIOMSS was 2% lower than the 15YA, and the CALF was 6% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.79, and the CPI was 0.84. The NDVI curve shows a significant recovery of vegetation in this region in April. Although the RAIN was low, the higher TEMP and RADPAR contributed to crop growth and recovery. The agricultural production situation was normal.

Ural and Western Volga Region (178)

The Ural and Western Volga Region is one of Russia's important agricultural areas, mainly growing spring wheat and other summer crops. In the Ural and Western Volga Region, the RAIN was 5% lower than the 15YA, the TEMP was 1.8°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 7%. The BIOMSS was 17% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 20% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.97, and the CPI was 1.27. The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation in this region recovered quickly in early April but was slightly lower than the 5YA overall. Despite some adverse factors, the overall agricultural production outlook is optimistic.

Western Siberia (179)

Agricultural production in the Western Siberia region is limited by climatic conditions, and the cultivated area is small. In Western Siberia, the RAIN was 10% higher than the 15YA, the TEMP was 1.8°C higher, and the RADPAR decreased by 9%. The BIOMSS was 7% higher than the 15YA, and the CALF was 84% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.71, and the CPI was 0.54. The NDVI curve shows that the vegetation in this region recovered slowly in early April, close to the 5YA.

Figure 3.42 Russia’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)            Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index

(l) Temperature index

(m) CPI Time Series graph

(n) Minimum vegetation health index

Table 3.75 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January 2024 - April 2024

Table 3.76 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January 2024 - April 2024