Maize and wheat are the two major crops CropWatch focuses on in Ukraine. During this winter-spring (Jan. to Apr. 2024) monitoring period, winter wheat was in the green-up phase. Sowing of spring wheat started in April. May will be the main planting period for maize.

Ukraine experienced a warm spring; the temperatures (4.1℃, +2.6℃) were higher than 15YA. They exceed the 15 year maximum in February and April at the national level. Rainfall was normal (242 mm, +0%) while sunshine (486 MJ/m2, -7%) was slightly lower compared to 15YA. Benefited from favourable agroclimatic conditions,  crop potential biomass was expected to be 12% (479 gDM/m2) higher than the 15YA. From an agronomic aspect, 82% of cropland was cultivated in this period (CALF, 0.82), which increased by 5% above the 5YA. VCIx and CPI also reached fair values of 0.87 and 1.08 (higher than 5YA (1.03)), respectively, showing good prospectives for winter wheat. 

Remote sensing based good crop condition was consistent with the results of favourable agroclimatic and agronomic indicators. The NDVI profiles quickly recovered to the 5YA since late February and continued to increase to the 5-year maximum at the end of this period.  Spatial NDVI departure profiles showed that NDVI in most areas had generally improved to above-average levels by the end of April. The crop condition of 68.9% of cropland was higher than the 5YA level at the end of April, while the remaining 31.1% are concentrated in southern Ukraine, such as Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts, where the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine war is. Those oblasts also had low VCI values. In conclusion, the overall situation was favorable for winter crops.

Regional analyses

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

Central wheat area, Eastern Carpathian hills and Northern wheat area experienced similar patterns of agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in this season. Rainfall in these three AEZs ranged from normal (-1%, Central wheat area) to above normal (+15%, Northern wheat area). Temperature was 2.5 to 3.0 higher than 15YA, in the Northern wheat area/ Eastern Carpathian hills to the Central wheat area, while radiation decreased by 3% (Eastern Carpathian hills) to 13% (Northern wheat area). As a result of favorable weather conditions, the potential biomass in above AEZs increased as well, ranging from 19% (Central wheat area, Northern wheat area) to 23%(Eastern Carpathian hills). For the agronomic conditions, CALF was 6% to 8% above the 5YA, VCIx were around 0.92 and 1.01, CPI ranged from 1.14 to 1.38.  All these indicators were suggesting favourable conditions and above average production situation during this monitoring period. The NDVI based crop condition also presented good performance, NDVI in these AEZs recovered to the 5YA since the middle of February and surpassed the 5 year maximum in April. In summary, CropWatch observed favorable prospects for winter wheat production in the Central wheat area, Eastern Carpathian Hills and Northern wheat area.

Unlike the above AEZs, crop conditions in the Southern wheat and maize area was just close to average or below. The Southern wheat and maize area was deficient in rainfall (-21%), had higher temperature of about 2.8℃ and average radiation (-2%) in comparison with  the 15YA. Weather based projected biomass (+3%) was just close to the 15YA. CALF attained 0.84 (+0%) and VCIx reached 0.80 indicating the lower rainfall did not adversely affect the crops. The NDVI was also marginally higher than 5YA at the end of this period. The CPI was 0.94, lower than the 5YA (1.06). All in all, the situation in the Southern wheat and maize area was not as favorable as in the other three AEZs.

Figure 3.46 Ukraine's crop condition, January – April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

(l) Time series CPI profile

Table 3.83 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  January – April 2024

Table 3.84 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2024