The monitoring period from January to April 2024 covers the main growth stages of winter wheat and the planting of maize in Uzbekistan. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the temperature (TEMP) was slightly above average (0.2°C), while rainfall (RAIN) and radiation (RADPAR) were below average (-13% and -2%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was significantly below the 15YA, except for the end of January, beginning of March and middle of April. The temperature from January to middle of February was above the 15YA, but was below the 15YA in the end of February and beginning of March, while it turned to close to the 15YA in the following months. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) decreased by 9% compared to the 15YA. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that the crop conditions were below the five-year average in this monitoring period, especially for January and beginning of February. However, the drop in early February most likely can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images or snow on the ground. Conditions greatly improved to average levels by the end of April.

The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.74. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 44%) decreased by 3% compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 48.7% of arable land (red and orange) showed unfavorable conditions in this monitoring period, mainly in the west of Aral Sea cotton zone and east of the country. (2) 24.0% of arable land (light green and blue), mainly in the central area of the Eastern hilly cereals, had better crop conditions than average in this monitoring period. (3) 27.3% of arable land (dark green) had unfavorable conditions in late January and early March, while average or better crop conditions in other months in this period. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.93, which was higher than CPI last year (0.82), but lower than the five-year average CPI (1.12). Prospects for the production of winter cereals are slightly unfavorable. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212). It is noteworthy that the crop condition in the central region with sparse crops had little impact on the crop production of Uzbekistan since the crop fields are sparse in the region.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-13% and -3%), while TEMP was slightly above average (+0.2°C). The CALF was 56%. It had decreased by 3% compared to the 5YA and the VCIx index was 0.77. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph showed a similar pattern as the national average state, which indicated that the crop conditions were below the 5YA in this monitoring period. The BIOMSS decreased by 9%. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.93. The prospects for crop production improved to average conditions in late April.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN was below average (-15%), while RADPAR and TEMP were above average (+3% and +1°C). These factors resulted in a decrease in BIOMSS (-5%). The CALF was 1%, which decreased by 5% compared to the 5YA. The maximum VCI index was 0.62 and the crop production index (CPI) was 0.89. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph showed that the crop conditions were significantly below the 5YA in this monitoring period, especially in January and February. The NDVI values were lower than 0.1 in January, probably due to the cloud or snow. However, conditions improved to average by the end of this monitoring period.

Figure 3.5 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, January - April 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles                        (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall pofiles

(g) Temperature pofile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern hilly cereals region (left) and Aral Sea cotton region (right))

(i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.2 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.3 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024