In South Africa, soybean and maize are the main crops being produced during this monitoring period. In the west, maize planting finished in January and harvest will start in June. In the east, maize harvest started in April. Soybean was grown from January to March and harvest began in April.

Based on the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were generally below the 5-year average for most of the time. Starting in February, higher temperatures and insufficient rainfall led to a significant decline in NDVI.

At the national level, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that TEMP and RADPAR were above the 15-year average (+1.3°C, +10%). Due to severe rainfall deficit (-36%), the BIOMSS decreased significantly by 25% compared to the 15-year average.The VCIx was 0.83 and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) remained unchanged compared with the 5-year average level. The CPI was 0.86, indicating poor crop conditions.

As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, approximately 80% of South Africa were above average in January. However, starting in February, only about 29.2% of areas had crop conditions close to or above the average, primarily in the southwest region of Western Cape, the coastal area of KwaZulu-Natal in the east, and Mpumalanga. The remaining 70.8% experienced below-average crop conditions throughout the monitoring period, predominantly in Eastern Cape, Free State, and North West.  Overall, insufficient rainfall adversely affected crop growth across South Africa.

Regional analysis

In the Arid and desert zones (221), RAIN (65 mm) was significantly below average (-41%) while RADPAR(+8%) and TEMP(+1.2°C) were slightly above average. BIOMSS decreased by 8% due to the low rainfall. CALF decreased (-8%) and VCIx was 0.87. The CPI was 0.75, indicating a relatively low level. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that the crop conditions were above the 5-year average level in January, declined in February and March, and then improved in April. Overall, the crop condition is considered poor.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains (222), the TEMP (+1.0°C) and RADPAR (+8%) were above average. Due to insufficient rainfall (135 mm, -59%), BIOMSS was below the 15-year average (-26%). CALF was 99% and VCIx was 0.92. The CPI was 0.94, indicating a below average level. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that the crop conditions were above the 5-year average level in January, declined in February and March, and then improved in April. Overall, the crop condition is considered below average.

In the Mediterranean zone (223) , the TEMP (+0.6°C) was above the average and the RADPAR improved by 4%. But the Rainfall dropped to 88 mm  (-12%). The BIOMSS decreased by 5% due to the insufficient rainfall. CALF increased (36%, +19%) and VCIx was 0.79. The CPI was 1.05, indicating a high level. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was close to the 5-year average level for the whole period, which indicates that crop conditions were generally normal.

In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (224), RAIN (47 mm, -78%) was significantly below the 15-year average, whereas TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+1.5°C, +11%). The BIOMSS was decreased by 28% due to the insufficient rainfall. CALF decreased slightly (96%, +1%) and VCIx was 0.82. The CPI was 0.86, indicating poor production conditions. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that except for January, the NDVI was below the five-year average in all other months. All in all, the crop conditions were poor.        

Figure3.5 South Africa's crop condition, January - April 2024   

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                              (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                     (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid desert (left) and Humid sub-tropical (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (semiarid steppe (left) and Mediterranean (right))

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.1 South Africa's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 3.2 South Africa's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024