This report covers the main growth period of rainfed crops in Zambia. The major crops were planted from mid-November to early January. Most of Zambia experienced prolonged dry spells affecting Southern, Western, Central, and Eastern provinces. The dry spells started in January when the rains were expected to be at a peak. The CropWatch agronomic indicators at the national scale showed a decrease in rainfall (RAIN -50%) while the temperature increased (TEMP = +1ºC). Similarly, there was an increase in radiation (RADPAR = 8%), biomass production decreased (BIOMSS = -25%), while  CALF was (99%). The overall VCIx was at 0.86. Main crops such as maize, legumes, groundnuts, millet, sorghum, and others withered due to insufficient soil moisture. Due to the serious nature of the dry spells the country declared a national disaster that devastated the agricultural sector, affecting more than one million families.

Regional Analysis:

The regional analysis showed a reduction in rainfall in the zones (Western Semi-arid plain (-72%), Luangwa-Zambezi Valley (-73%), Central Eastern and Southern plateau (-55%), and Northern high rainfall region (-35%). An increase in solar radiation (+4% to +10%) was observed in all the zones, and when combined with reduced rainfall, there was a decline in potential biomass production in all the zones (-12% to -38%). The Luangwa-Zambezi rift valley (-38%) and Western Semi-arid plain (-38%) experienced the highest decrease in biomass production. The lack of moisture heavily affected biomass production in the main agriculture production zones (Central Eastern and Southern plateau). At the regional level, the Crop Production Index (CPI) was below 1.0 with the Northern high rainfall zone (0.99), Western Semi-arid plain (0.92), Luangwa Zambezi rift valley (0.84), and the Central Eastern and Southern plateau (0.89). 

Figure A: Phenology of main crops

Figure B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure C: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure D: Time series temperature profile

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Figure F:  CPI time series graph

Table 1: Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2024

Table 2: Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2024