Utilizing multi-source remote sensing data from ESA's Sentinel-1 and 2 satellites and the US Landsat 8 and 9 satellites, as well as 10-meter resolution cropland data for the entire country, and supported by over 130,000 ground survey data points across more than 500 counties nationwide, machine learning and  Big Data Earth monitoring methods were employed to monitor the planting areas of winter crops and winter wheat across the country in 2024. Combined with the latest agricultural meteorological information and crop yield remote sensing monitoring models, the production of winter crops and winter wheat for this year was predicted. The results are as follows.

（1）Prediction of Winter Crops Production

The total production of winter crops nationwide in 2024 is predicted to reach 145.42 million tons, surpassing 145 million tons for the first time, with an increase of 3.01 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 2.1%.

During the growth period of winter crops, the agricultural meteorological conditions in the main producing areas were generally normal. The national average yield of winter crops is expected to increase by 1.4% year-on-year (Table 4.2). In the North China and Huang-Huai-Hai regions, the yield of winter crops increased year-on-year in all provinces, with Hebei having the largest increase at 3.5%. The yields in Shandong (+1.9%), Jiangsu (+1.9%), Shanxi (+1.7%), Anhui (+1.5%), and Henan (+1.2%) generally increased.

The widespread snowfall during the overwintering period of winter wheat provided good soil moisture for the growth of winter crops. Spring agricultural meteorological conditions were generally normal, with cumulative precipitation 17% higher than average, temperatures 1.0°C warmer, and normal sunlight conditions. These favorable weather conditions benefited the growth of winter crops. Compared to 2023, the occurrence of frost damage, pests, and diseases in winter crop-producing areas was generally less.

The planting area for winter crops nationwide increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the main contributions to the area increase coming from the Huang-Huai-Hai region and Xinjiang. In Henan and Shandong, the two largest winter crop-producing provinces, the planting area increased by 0.5% and 1.0% year-on-year. Xinjiang saw the largest increase in winter crop planting area, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The planting areas in Hubei and Sichuan increased by 2.5% and 1.8%.

The combined increase in planting area and yield led to an increase in total production of 0.8 million tons in Shandong, 0.57 million tons in Henan, 0.47 million tons in Xinjiang, and 0.44 million tons in Hebei, contributing 76% of the national increase in winter crop production. In Anhui and Jiangsu, the production of winter crops increased by 0.29 million tons and 0.31 million tons, respectively. In Sichuan, the yield of winter crops decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, resulting in a reduction of 0.05 million tons, while in Gansu, the reduction in planting area led to a decrease of 0.06 million tons in winter crop production.

Table 4.2 Yield and Production Forecast of Winter Crops in Major Producing Provinces in 2024

（2）Prediction of Winter Wheat Production

In 2024, the national winter wheat planting area is 23.775 million hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares compared to last year, a slight increase of 0.3% (Table 4.3).

The total winter wheat planting area in 11 major producing provinces, including Henan and Shandong, reached 21,539 million hectares, an increase of 49 thousand hectares year-on-year, a growth rate of about 0.2%. The Huang-Huai-Hai region (Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan) is the main winter wheat producing area in China, accounting for over 73% of the national winter wheat area, with a planting area of 17,513 million hectares, which is overall the same as in 2023 (Figure 4.8). The northwest region (Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang) has a winter wheat planting area of 1,982 million hectares, an increase of 46 thousand hectares year-on-year, a growth rate of 2.4%, contributing 76.7% of the national increase in winter wheat planting area. The southwest and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River regions experienced slight increases in winter wheat planting area.

Figure 4.8: Spatial Distribution of Winter Wheat in North China and the Huang-Huai-Hai Wheat Region in 2024

By province, the winter wheat planting areas increased by 53 thousand hectares in Xinjiang (+8.6%), 42 thousand hectares in Shandong (+1.0%), and 40 thousand hectares in Jiangsu (+1.5%). Henan, the largest winter wheat-producing province, saw an increase of 27 thousand hectares, about 0.5%. In some provinces, the winter wheat planting area slightly decreased. In Anhui, the planting area in 2024 is about 2,937 thousand hectares, a reduction of about 116 thousand hectares, a decrease of 3.8%. The rapeseed planting area in Anhui increased by 41 thousand hectares in 2024, mainly due to the promotion of the "rice-oil rotation" model and the lower input required for rapeseed, increasing farmers' willingness to plant it. The winter wheat planting areas in Gansu and Sichuan decreased by 11 thousand hectares and 4 thousand hectares, respectively.

The growth conditions of winter wheat are favorable, with predicted year-on-year yield increases of 3.5% in Hebei, 1.9% in Jiangsu, 1.9% in Shandong, and 1.2% in Henan. Combined with the increase in planting area, the total wheat production is expected to increase by 0.435 million tons in Hebei, 0.466 million tons in Jiangsu, 0.793 million tons in Shandong, and 0.574 million tons in Henan. In Xinjiang and Gansu, the yield of winter wheat is expected to increase by 2.7% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively. With the increase in planting area in Xinjiang and the decrease in Gansu, the production of winter wheat in these two provinces is expected to increase by 0.394 million tons and 0.052 million tons, respectively. In Anhui and Sichuan, although the yield of winter wheat increased, the reduction in planting area led to decreases in production by 0.107 million tons and 0.034 million tons.

In 2024, the agricultural meteorological conditions in the main winter wheat-producing areas are generally good, with only minor agricultural disasters. The average yield of winter wheat is predicted to be 5,439 kg/ha, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. The total production of winter wheat in 2024 is expected to be 129.32 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 2.1%.

Since the overwintering period, the main winter wheat producing areas have had generally favorable agricultural meteorological conditions, with ample precipitation and suitable soil moisture. Although temperatures fluctuated, they remained within the normal range, and the growth of winter wheat was good. In mid-to-late May, strong winds and rain in the Huang-Huai-Hai wheat region caused lodging in some areas, but the overall impact was limited.

Table 4.3 Forecast of Planting Area, Yield, and Production of Winter Wheat in Major Producing Provinces in 2024