This section summarizes global disaster events occurring between January and April 2024. It encompasses various incidents such as the effects of armed conflicts on food security, developments in the desert locust situation, and occurrences of droughts and floods

Impact of armed conflict

The Democratic Republic of Congo: In recent months, tensions have been steadily escalating between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The M23 insurgency's advance in eastern DRC, coupled with deteriorating humanitarian conditions, has fueled the conflict. Since October 2023, clashes between government forces and rebels in North Kivu have significantly worsened security and humanitarian crises. Between January and June 2024, an estimated 23.4 million people (22% of the population analyzed) are likely to experience severe food insecurity (IPC Phases 3 or above), with further population displacement expected, particularly in eastern provinces due to armed conflict.

Sudan Conflict: The report from the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis spanning October 2023 to February 2024 underscores Sudan's profound food security challenges following the April 2023 conflict. The aftermath witnessed a stark increase of 8.6 million individuals facing acute food insecurity, totalling 20.3 million affected.

The latest projection update paints a dire picture, with approximately 17.7 million Sudanese (37% of the analysed population) grappling with severe food insecurity between October 2023 and February 2024, categorized as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Within this group, 4.9 million individuals (10% of the analysed population) find themselves in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), while nearly 12.8 million (27% of the analysed population) fall into IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

Humanitarian efforts grapple with formidable challenges, primarily access constraints exacerbated by escalating conflict dynamics. Delivery of lifesaving aid to conflict hotspots like Khartoum, the Kordofans, and Darfur remains hampered by the complex and perilous operational environment.

Gaza strip: The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2024 identifies armed conflicts as the major driver of food insecurity, and the food crisis in the Gaza Strip as the worst in eight years. The Hamas-led attack on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent destruction of Gaza have taken the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict into an awful new chapter. More than 85 per cent of Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants have left their homes, according to the UN, which also warns of a public order collapse, famine and infectious disease, which aid agencies say could soon claim more lives than military operations. The entire strip is facing acute food insecurity and limited access to water, sanitation and health facilities. Nearly one third of the population is suffering catastrophic food insecurity; in northern Gaza, the number rises to 55 per cent. Mortality lags, since starving people do not necessarily die immediately. Within months, on the current trajectory, the numbers will rise to 50 per cent and 70 per cent, respectively. The damaged and ruined physical plant includes not only homes but also schools, hospitals, government offices and nearly every type of facility vital for service provision. About 28% of Gaza's agricultural land has been damaged, with Gaza and the northern governorate most affected. Over 20% of irrigation wells are destroyed, and much agricultural infrastructure is damaged. The impact of the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip continues to be severe.

Russia-Ukraine conflict: Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of food crops, with Russia also playing a significant role in the global economy as an exporter of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers. Ukraine produces less wheat but more maize compared to Russia, its agricultural production and exports of both commodities have declined due to the conflict. Predictions for the 2023–2024 season indicate an 11% decrease in Ukraine's wheat exports and a 15% decrease in maize exports compared to the previous season (2022–2023).

According to Filho et al. (2023), after a decline during the past decade, global hunger is rising again, and the ongoing war in Ukraine is expected to increase this trend. The reason for this is the volatility of major food commodity  and fertilizer prices, which may affect production decisions and spur speculative behaviour. It will affect international society, but countries most dependent on imports of Ukrainian and Russian cereals, such as Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia (whose wheat imports from Ukraine are 85%, 81%, and 50% of their total wheat imports, respectively), will be the most impacted by war-related disruptions. This war is also affecting the ability of international agencies to provide food aid to countries that are suffering from famine or other armed conflicts because of rising costs, with the risk of excluding millions of people from current food aid programs.

Desert locust

According to the February 2024 FAO Desert Locust Bulletin, the desert locust situation from January 2024 to mid-March 2024 showed isolated adults in Algeria and Morocco (Figure 5.3). Light rainfall may have allowed spring breeding to start on a small scale in these regions. Additionally, the first winter generation persisted along the Red Sea coast, with hopper groups, bands, adult groups, and small swarms reported in Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf of Aden in Northwest Somalia. Ethiopia also saw a few small swarms.

In February 2024, the second generation continued along the Red Sea coast with hatching, hopper groups, bands, and new immature adult groups reported in Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Egypt. Some first-generation swarms moved from the southeast coast of Egypt to the Nile Valley, while new hatching and first-instar hopper groups were observed on the coast of Yemen.

March 2024 saw a decline in the second-generation hatching, hopper groups, and bands along the Red Sea coast of Sudan, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia. However, groups of immature adults increased slightly. Locust activity increased in Egypt, while Yemen reported a few hopper groups and bands on the southeastern coast. No locusts were observed in Somalia and Oman, with no surveys conducted in Ethiopia.

In April 2024, the second-generation hoppers, bands, and adult groups decreased along the Red Sea coast of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Hatching and hopper groups were observed near the Nile valley in Southern Egypt (Figure 5.3). Scattered adults were present in various places in Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Figure 5. Desert locust situation, January 2024 – April 2024 (Source: https://www.fao.org/locust-watch/information/bulletin/en)

Climate extremes related events

Drought in Eastern Africa: During the period from January to April 2024, Eastern Africa experienced rainfall deficits, particularly in February and March (refer to Figure 5.4). In these months, areas such as eastern, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopia, a significant portion of Somalia, Southern Sudan, Northern South Sudan, western Uganda, and northern Rwanda were under alert due to vegetation stress caused by the insufficient rainfall.

Jan.   2024	Feb.   2024
Mar.   2024

Figure 5.2 Drought conditions from Jan to Mar 2024 in Eastern Africa (Source: https://droughtwatch.icpac.net/)

Drought and heavy rain stage in Afghanistan: According to the report from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) covering the period from January to March 2024, initial expectations of favorable weather conditions in Afghanistan due to El Niño were not met. Instead of increased snow and rainfall, the country experienced unseasonably warm winter weather and low precipitation levels, resulting in record-low snow water levels in January. This lack of precipitation significantly impacted various regions, particularly in the northeast, east, and some southern provinces, where only 45 to 60 percent of the average precipitation was received. This had adverse effects on the planting of winter wheat and the health of livestock.

Throughout January, dry spell conditions began to emerge in the Western, Northern, and North Eastern regions of Afghanistan, worsening in severity during February and March. Provinces such as Hirat, Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan, Baghlan, and Kunduz were among the hardest hit. While some regions started to recover in February and March, including parts of Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, Hilmand, and Kandahar, new areas such as Uruzgan, Kandahar (Southern Region), Nangarhar, and Kunar experienced the development of dry spells.

In contrast, April 2024 (refer to Figure 5.5) brought above-average precipitation, supporting the growth of spring wheat and facilitating the recovery of pasture and streamflow. Despite this positive development, the snow-water equivalent (SWE) anomaly remained below average in the mountains of Badakhshan, potentially impacting water availability for downstream irrigated areas in the late spring and summer, especially for second-season crops reliant on irrigation. Southern Afghanistan, however, witnessed one of its top three wettest Aprils in the last four decades.

Overall, the precipitation in April benefited crops in the northern, northeastern, and western regions of Afghanistan, although flooding affected around 4,047 hectares of agricultural land, particularly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country. As the precipitation season comes to an end, household access to food and income is expected to improve with the onset of the harvest and agricultural labor opportunities.

Persistent rain deficits remain a concern in some southern regions of Europe: According to Joint Research Centre Feb 2024 report, rain deficits negatively affected winter crops in south-eastern Romania and north-eastern Bulgaria, where rainfall during the review period was less than half of the long-term average (LTA). In some coastal Mediterranean areas of Spain, the ongoing rain deficit further deepened, to the detriment of crops and water reserves. The rain deficit and unusually high temperatures in the breadbasket regions of Greece did not affect crops thanks to adequate soil-moisture reserves. In many parts of Italy, the review period ranked between third and fifth driest in our records since 1991. Drought developed in Sicily, where long-lasting rain deficits were combined with above-average temperatures in areas with limited water availability. Drought conditions also persisted in Morocco and western Algeria, with serious impacts on cereal yield expectations.

Climate change, not El Niño, main driver of exceptional drought in highly vulnerable Amazon River Basin: Since mid-2023, the Amazon River Basin (ARB) has been experiencing an unprecedented drought, attributed to decreased rainfall and consistently high temperatures throughout 2023 across the basin. As noted by Ben et al. (2024), the ARB is home to the largest rainforest globally, rendering it a crucial hotspot of biodiversity and an integral component of the global hydrological and carbon cycle. River levels have plummeted to their lowest recorded levels in 120 years, imperiling an estimated 30 million people residing in the Amazon basin across several nations, including Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia. This peril manifests in disrupted transportation, isolated communities, and widespread wildlife casualties.

Research published in January 2024 reveals that the drought disproportionately affects highly vulnerable populations. Smallholder farmers, indigenous, rural, and river communities are particularly susceptible due to their elevated poverty rates and heavy reliance on agricultural food production, freshwater availability, and river-based goods transport. The study suggests an initial assessment to determine the extent to which El Niño influences this trend. While El Niño has indeed contributed to reduced precipitation in the region to a similar degree as climate change, the profound drying trend primarily stems from escalated global temperatures. Consequently, the severity of the ongoing drought is predominantly attributed to climate change.

Severe drought in southern Africa (Zambia and neighbouring countries)：The drought, which began in February 2024 at the peak of the rainy seaon in parts of Angola, Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, and Lesotho. As a result of the El Niño-induced drought, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have declared national disasters, facing devastating impacts on food production and the loss of most staple crops.

Impact of flood

Flood in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil：The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods are severe floods caused by heavy rains and storms that have hit the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul and the adjacent Uruguayan cities of Treinta y Tres, Paysandú, Cerro Largo, and Salto. From April 29, 2024, through May 2024, the floods resulted in over 150 fatalities, widespread landslides, and a dam collapse. It is considered the country's worst flooding in over 80 years.

Porto Alegre, the capital of Rio Grande do Sul, is located in southern Brazil. It is an important port city situated on the shores of Lake Guaíba, connected to the Atlantic Ocean by an 81-kilometer waterway. The port and the fertile hinterland make agriculture in the Porto Alegre area highly prosperous, playing a significant role in Brazil and South America.

Figure.5.4  Water body during flooding time generated from ESA land cover data

The upper reaches of Porto Alegre encompass the Lake Guaíba basin and the upper reaches of the Uruguay River. These areas feature flat terrain, fertile soil, a mild climate, and abundant rainfall, making them highly suitable for agricultural development. The region is rich in soybeans, wheat, rice, corn, and other food crops, as well as fruits such as oranges and apples. Animal husbandry is also well-developed, with cattle, pigs, and poultry being the primary livestock raised.

As the largest port in Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre serves as the main distribution center and export channel for the region's agricultural products. A large quantity of grain, oilseeds, fruits, and other produce is shipped from here to markets across Brazil and around the world.

Flood in Russia: Higher-than-usual spring temperatures caused rapid snowmelt, inundating parts of Russia and Kazakhstan. In April 2024, extensive flooding affected southern Russia and northern, eastern, and western Kazakhstan, marking the most severe flooding in 70 years, particularly in the Ural Mountains and Siberia. The disaster was primarily caused by accelerated snowmelt during the spring flood season and heavy rainfall.

Although higher temperatures, such as 1.8°C above average in the Ural and western Volga regions, were favorable for the growth of spring-sown crops, they also accelerated snow and ice melting. Combined with heavy rainfall, this led to record-high snowmelt volumes and river levels in the Ural Mountains, resulting in severe flooding in several regions, including Orenburg, Kurgan, and Tyumen Oblasts. Additionally, the collapse of a dam in Orsk, Orenburg Oblast, further exacerbated the situation.

In Russia, a federal emergency was declared, and hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated, including 16,000 in Kazakhstan. At least eight people died, and hundreds of livestock drowned in floods that inundated a large  area. The southern Russian city of Orenburg and its surrounding areas, particularly along the Ural River, were the hardest hit.

Flood in Southern China: According to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), heavy rainfall on April 20 has caused severe flooding in Guangdong province in southern China. This has led to river overflows and severe weather-related incidents, resulting in casualties and significant damage. More than 110,000 people have been displaced, with at least 25,800 evacuated to shelters. Guangdong province, an economic powerhouse home to 127 million people, has been particularly hard hit. Since April 16, sustained torrential rains have pounded the Pearl River Delta, China's manufacturing heartland and one of its most densely populated regions.

The Pearl River basin typically experiences annual flooding from April to September, but the region has faced more intense rainstorms and severe floods in recent years. Scientists warn that the climate crisis will amplify extreme weather, making it deadlier and more frequent. Yin Zhijie, chief hydrological forecaster at the Ministry of Water Resources, told state-run outlet 'The Paper,' “Judging from the flood control situation in recent years, climate warming and temperature rise have intensified, and extreme heavy rainfall occurs every year, leading to torrential rains and floods.”

On the Bei River, which flows into the Pearl River, authorities have warned of a "once a century" flood expected to reach 5.8 meters (19 feet) above the warning limit. The tributary had already burst its banks on April 8, marking the earliest arrival of its annual flood season since records began in 1998, according to Guangdong authorities. This "massive flood" at the Bei River is the earliest on record to hit China in the highest category of a four-tier classification system, according to Yin. Floods of this magnitude usually occur after late June .

Flood in Afghanistan: According to a report from UN-OCHA on April 17, 2024, floods have severely affected various regions of Afghanistan, including the central, central highlands, northern, northeastern, southern, and western areas. Between April 10 and April 16, 2024, heavy rains and flash floods impacted numerous districts across the country.

Reports indicate that the central region, comprising 19 districts in Kabul, Kapisa, Panjshir, and Parwan provinces, experienced significant flooding. In addition to civilian casualties and damage to homes, critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and culverts has been damaged, disrupting transportation networks.

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