International trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China

Maize

In the first quarter, China imported 7.901 million tonnes of maize, an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous year, with an import value of US $2.267 billion, a decrease of 17.1% compared to the previous year. The main import sources were Brazil, Ukraine, and the United States, accounting for 66.9%, 19.4%, and 11.1% of the total import volume, respectively. Maize exports reached 600 tonnes, an increase of 63.3% compared to the previous year, with an export value of US $869.7 thousand. The main exports were to Russia, Uzbekistan, and Thailand, accounting for 71.4%, 18.3%, and 5.0% of the total exports, respectively.

Rice

In the first quarter, China imported 309 thousand tonnes of rice, a decrease of 69.3% compared to the previous year. The import amount was US $189 million, a decrease of 63.0% compared to the previous year. The main import sources were Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Cambodia, accounting for 39.1%, 33.8%, 15.4%, 5.6%, and 5.3% of the total import volume, respectively. Rice exports reached 246.8 thousand tonnes, an increase of 6.1% compared to the previous year, with an export value of US $200 million, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year. The main exports were to South Korea, Libya, Papua New Guinea, Puerto Rico, and Guinea Bissau, accounting for 25.8%, 12.2%, 11.5%, 8.5%, and 8.1% of the total exports, respectively.

Wheat

In the first quarter, China imported 4.287 million tonnes of wheat and processed products, a decrease of 1.4% compared to the previous year. The import value was US $1.37 billion, a decrease of 18.5% compared to the previous year. The main import sources were Australia, France, and Canada, accounting for 39.3%, 24.7%, and 21.5% of the total import volume, respectively. Wheat exports amounted to 35.3 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 30.6% compared to the previous year, with an export value of US $18 million, a decrease of 28.0% year-on-year. The main exports were to Hong Kong and Macau, China, accounting for 39.7% and 35.7% respectively.

Soybean

In the first quarter, China imported 18.578 million tonnes of soybeans, a decrease of 10.8% compared to the previous year. The import amount was US $10.451 billion, a decrease of 25.2% compared to the previous year. The main import sources were Brazil, the United States, Canada, Russia, and Argentina, accounting for 53.8%, 38.4%, 4.9%, 1.2%, and 1.1% of the total import volume, respectively. Soybean exports amounted to 16.8 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 7.2% compared to the previous year, with an export value of US $17.8166 million, a decrease of 20.3% compared to the previous year.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2024

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2024 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will decrease as compared to 2023. The details are as follows:

China's maize imports will decrease in 2024, while exports will remain relatively stable. The international maize market is booming in production and sales, with a significant increase in end of period inventory and relatively loose supply-demand relations. International maize prices continue to be low, and maize imports have a significant advantage. However, due to stable domestic production, maize imports have fallen from high levels. It is expected that the import volume of maize in China will decrease in 2024.

In 2024, China's rice imports will slightly decrease by 3.4% and exports will increase by 1.6% in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, the international rice market has experienced sluggish trade, with an overall decrease in trade volume and a decrease in India's exports. It is expected that China's rice imports will remain low in 2024.

In 2024, China's wheat imports will decrease by 16.4% and exports will decrease by 10.6% in 2024. As the price difference between domestic wheat and maize returns to normal, the substitution of wheat for feed decreases, and the production capacity of high-quality specialized wheat continues to increase, wheat imports will gradually decline. It is expected that wheat imports will decrease in 2024.

China's soybean imports will decrease in 2024, while exports will remain relatively stable. The international soybean production has steadily increased, and the supply and demand have maintained a relaxed pattern. Although China has vigorously implemented the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project, the import volume remains high. It is expected that China's soybean imports will remain stable with a slight decrease in 2024.

Figure 4.16 Rate of change of forecasted imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2024 (%)