The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of July 2024. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing agri-climatic conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries"), while Chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) are harvested this year or currently still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from April to July 2024.

Agroclimatic conditions

Global warming continued to cause new record-high temperatures: July 2024 was the warmest July on record and July 22, 2024 was the warmest day on Earth in recent history. Fortunately, the northern hemisphere was mostly spared from extreme heat waves and prolonged droughts, although pre-monsoon heat waves hit South Asia very hard. In Rajasthan (India) and Sindh (Pakistan), several cities reported maximum temperatures above 50ºC. These extreme temperatures affect not only the people living in the cities but also agricultural production.

El Niño has ended and we are currently in a neutral phase, which implies a generally more regular distribution of rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall deficits were observed for the Cerrrados in Brazil, the Pacific Northwest of the USA, the Maghreb, and southeastern Europe. In some countries, mostly located in Southeast Asia, as well as in Mexico, monsoon rains started later than usual.

Global crop production situation

The global CPI for the third quarter (April-July) of 2024 is 0.97, which is slightly higher than in the previous two years. It is close to 1, indicating that the global agricultural production situation was generally normal.

Maize:

Global maize production in 2024 is forecasted at 1.063 billion tonnes, a decrease of 6.81 million tonnes or 0.6% compared to the previous year. After an unusually dry winter season, the summer rains were off to a late start in Mexico. However, with good rainfall starting in June, Mexico saw increases in both maize planting area and yield, leading to a production increase of 14.7%, the highest among major producing countries. In the USA, growing conditions for maize have been close to average, but farmers expanded the area of soybean at the expense of maize. This will result in a production of 367.45 million tonnes, a decrease of 8.93 million tonnes or 2.4%. In Argentina, conditions were more favorable than a year ago. Similarly, conditions for the second maize crop in Brazil were better than a year ago, resulting in total production of 100.74 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.1%. Production for the 2023-24 season in southern Africa suffered from a severe rainfall deficit, causing failures of maize crops in Zambia, southern Malawi and northern Zimbabwe. Production in neighboring regions was also reduced. However, in the Horn of Africa, rainfall in recent months has been favorable in Ethiopia and Kenya, resulting in production increases of 4.8% and 7.9%, respectively. Countries in Eastern Europe, such as Romania and Hungary, were affected by rainfall deficits, leading to decreased maize yields and production reductions of 3.0% and 1.8%, respectively. In Ukraine, both maize planting area and yield decreased due to a rainfall deficit and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This resulted in a production drop to 22.61 million tonnes, a decrease of 13.2%.

Rice:

Rice production was generally stable, and global rice production is forecasted to increase by 0.57 million tonnes or about 0.1%. China, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan saw slight increases in rice yields, resulting in varying degrees of production increases. Iran experienced increases in both rice planting area and yield, leading to a significant production increase of 20.5%. On the other hand, countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam experienced rainfall deficits, leading to slight decreases in rice production. Among the countries in the Southern Hemisphere, Angola, Argentina, and Brazil had favorable agroclimatic conditions in their rice-producing regions, with rice yield increases leading to production increases of 4.8%, 22.6%, and 2.4%, respectively.

Wheat:

Global wheat production is estimated at 740.35 million tonnes, an increase of 7.51 million tonnes or 1.0%. China and India are the two largest producers of wheat. In China, production increased by 1.8% and in India by 2.6%. Conditions in Russia were mixed, resulting in a slight decline in production by 0.2%. As compared to last year, rainfall greatly improved for Central Asia, leading to substantial production increases in Kazakhstan (+45.6%), Uzbekistan (+14.8%) and Kyrgyzstan (+15.4%). The multiyear drought in Morocco continued, causing a reduction in wheat by 32%, to 4.7 million tonnes. In Western Europe, some winter wheat fields had to be replanted with spring crops, due to excessive soil moisture, which prevented timely planting and crop establishment last fall. High rainfall also caused challenging harvest conditions in June and July, causing low grain quality. In North America, the main wheat-producing regions in the United States and Canada experienced favorable agroclimatic conditions, with wheat production increasing by 5.4% and 4.4%, respectively. Similar to maize production, wheat production in Ukraine was also affected by drought and the ongoing conflict. This resulted in a substantial reduction in production by 16.3% to 18.9 million tonnes.

Soybean:

Global soybean production is 320.52 million tonnes, an increase of 2.38 million tonnes or 0.7%. The total soybean production of Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, the three major soybean-producing countries, is 252.05 million tonnes, an increase of 2.95 million tonnes, indicating an overall favorable global soybean supply situation. Among these three countries, Brazil experienced a decrease in production to 102.85 million tonnes, a decrease by 3.5%, while the United States saw a decline to 98.71 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.8%. Increases in planted area and yield in Argentina not only compensated for the production declines in Brazil and the United States but also exceeded them. El Niño had caused a rainfall deficit in most of Brazil, which was exacerbated by global warming and deforestation. In China, the soybean area increased substantially as a result of a government initiative.