South America

The reporting period from April to July 2024 covers the harvesting of late summer crops (soybean, maize and rice), and the sowing of wheat. The period is mainly a fallow period for early summer crops. For the whole MPZ, agronomic indicators showed a significant reduction in BIOMSS (-22%), regular to good conditions for Maximum VCI (0.88 on average) and an almost completely cropped arable land (98%). The CPI indicated average conditions (value: 1) for the current year. A substantial reduction in rainfall (-24%) could have affected the BIOMMS and VCIx indices. Temperature and RADPAR were average, with hardly any anomalies with values of +0.7°C and -2.4%, respectively. Conditions varied among subregions. Additionally, extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies were observed in some areas. Strong positive anomalies in RAIN observed around Rio Grande do Sul state in Brazil (light green profile) reflect the exceptional flooding event reported during May and June. High resolution Sentinel-1 satellite observed the severe flooding at Northeastern region of the Rio Grande do Sul state which not only affected the crop condtions but also social-economic conditions. Agronomic indices showing low VCIx values over this area.

In particular, BIOMSS showed high variability with good conditions in the Center and poor conditions in the North and South of the MPZ. Poor conditions in BIOMSS observed in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul Goias, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo can be explained by negative anomalies in RAIN observed during most of the reporting period (red profile). This profile was also observed in Subtropical Highlands in Argentina were low BIOMSS values were also observed. In Paraná state in Brazil, which also showed low BIOMSS values, a profile with positive and negative anomalies in RAIN was observed. These areas also showed strong positive anomalies in TEMP during most of the reporting period. Profiles with highest values at end April and begging May were observed in South Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana states in Brazil. Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais showed highest positive anomalies in TEMP during April and May.

Maximum VCI showed the poorest values (less than 0.5) in South Pampas and North Chaco in Argentina. Moderate conditions (less than 0.8) were observed in South Mato Grosso do Sul, North Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul states in Brazil, as well as in West Pampas in Argentina. The rest of the MPZ showed good conditions for this index.

The rest of the MPZ, including most of Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay showed positive anomalies in RAIN during April and almost no anomalies during the rest of the reporting period (dark green and orange profiles). In these regions, profiles with lower temperature anomalies were dominant, showing high negative values only during June. These conditions were reflected in positive anomalies in BIOMSS and good conditions in VCIx observed in Uruguay and Paraguay. These conditions were partially associated with agroclimatic indices in Argentina where good conditions in VCIx were observed in most of the country, but negative anomalies in BIOMSS were mostly observed. CALF map showed no cropped areas in Center North, West and Center South Pampas in Argentina, areas were poor conditions in agroclimatic indices were observed. Nevertheless, climatic profiles didn’t show bad conditions in these areas. A more detailed analysis of these conditions is described in the Main Exporting Countries section.

Despite some indices reflected in general normal conditions (CPI, VCIx), others showed poor conditions in the North and South of the MPZ (e.g. BIOMSS). It is relevant to mention some extreme anomalies observed in precipitation and temperature. A strong positive RAIN anomaly was observed in Rio Grande do Sul, associated with the huge flood event. Temperature also showed positive anomalies higher than +4°C across most of the region during the reporting period.

Figure 2.3 South America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, April - July 2024.

a) Potential biomass departure from 5YA

b) Maximum VCI

c) Cropped and uncropped arable land

d) Crop Production Index

e) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles

f) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles