2.6 Western Europe

This report covers the flowering and grainfilling periods for the winter cereals (mainly wheat, barley, and rye) grown in the Western European Major Production Zone (MPZ). The summer crops were sown between March and May. Most of the production in the northern half of the zone is rainfed, whereas in the south, production takes place under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Hence, this MPZ depends, mainly, on regular rainfall.

Generally, most parts of Spain and southern France experienced severe rainfall deficits and warmer-than-usual conditions. Crop growth conditions in the other regions of the MPZ were above or close to the average based on the interpretation of agroclimatic and agronomic indicators monitored by Cropwatch (Fig. 2.6).

CropWatch agronomic indicators show that the CPI of the MPZ was 1.0, slightly higher than the average level of the past 5YA (ΔCPI +0.02). Unlike the declining trend of the previous two years, the CPI in this reporting period shows a relatively significant increase, which was 0.08 and 0.05 higher than the last year and the previous year respectively. This indicates that the agricultural production situation this cropping season was better than the previous two years. The crops also benefitted from favorable conditions during this reporting period, where the average maximum VCI for the MPZ reached a value of 0.89, and the spatial distribution shows the areas with maximum VCI values below 0.5 were concentrated in most of eastern Spain and a few areas in northern Italy. In addition, the areas with maximum VCI values between 0.5 and 0.8 are mainly distributed in central Spain and most parts of northern Italy, with scattered distribution in northern and southern France, eastern Britain and western Germany. Most of the other regions have maximum VCI values of above 0.8, with the best vegetation conditions in western and northern Spain, southern France, and central Germany, with the index values above 1.0. About 96.4% of arable land was cropped, which was 0.6% higher than the recent 5YA average in the whole MPZ. The uncropped areas of arable land were mainly distributed in the central and western regions of Spain, and in some small zones in France and southern Italy and central Germany. The average VHI minimum for the MPZ was 0.38 during current reporting period, indicating that the overall crop growth in this area was affected by drought to some extent during the monitoring period. The VHI minimum map shows that the drought situation was more serious in central Spain and southern and northern Italy; large parts of the UK, Germany and France were affected by short spells of drought conditions, which is also consistent with the spatial distribution of regions with values below 0.5 in the spatial distribution map of maximum VCI.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that adequate precipitation continued from the last monitoring period, and the rainfall in this MPZ was significantly higher by 19%. According to the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, the precipitation in most parts of Spain, central and southern Italy, and a few parts of southern France, accounting for about 21.7% of the MPZ (green areas in Fig.2.6a), was lower than the average in other periods except in late June, which was slightly higher than the average level; Northern Italy, south-eastern France and a few parts of Western Germany, covering 3.5% of the MPZ (blue areas in Fig.2.6a), had relatively high rainfall, with above-average precipitation at all times except mid-April; Most of the United Kingdom, central and northern Germany, and eastern France, which account for about 45.2% of the MPZ (dark green and red areas in Fig.2.6a), experienced significant above-average precipitation during the monitoring period, with the exception of late May, when accumulative precipitation fluctuated sharply above and below average. During this reporting period, only Spain (ΔRAIN -43%) experienced a serious precipitation deficit, followed by Italy (ΔRAIN -1%), and the rest of the region had sufficient precipitation.

This MPZ experienced relatively mild weather (ΔTEMP +0.1℃), and lower solar radiation conditions (ΔRADPAR -4%). As shown in the spatial distribution of temperature profiles, the whole MPZ experienced average temperatures higher than the recent 15YA average between early April and late July. Outside this period, a few areas in northern Italy, France and southern Germany experienced significantly lower average temperatures (orange areas in Fig.2.6b). Average temperatures were also below average in central Spain, southern France, and northern and central Italy from late April to mid-May and from mid-June to early July (blue areas in Fig.2.6b); With the exception of late April, temperatures were significantly above average in northern and southern Italy and parts of Spain (red areas in Fig.2.6b). With the exception of late April, mid-June and early July, average temperatures were also above average in the United Kingdom, Germany (with a few exceptions in the south) and most of France as a whole (green and dark green areas in Fig.2.6b).

Due to the combined effect of abundant precipitation and warmer average temperatures, the potential BIOMSS was 7% above the 5YA. The Biomass accumulation potential departure showed that the lowest BIOMSS values (-20% and less) were mainly in Spain and southeastern Italy. In contrast, BIOMSS in Germany, much of France, southern England and northern Italy was more than 10 percent above the 5YA average.

Overall, the conditions of crops in the MPZ were mostly above or close to the average. The exception was Spain, where severe drought conditions adversely affected crop yields.

Figure 2.6. Western Europen MPZ: Agro-climatic and agronomic indicators,April to July 2024.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles  b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (℃)

e. Maximum VCI

f. Cropped arable land

g. Biomass accumulation potential departure

h. VHI minimum

i. Crop Production index time series chart

j. Ground view of Spain in June 2024