Chapter 3. Core countries

3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 46 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The "core countries", including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro-ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 46 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers. 

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are being dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Together, they are supplying three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Brazil has substantially increased its production in recent years, whereas Ukraine’s export has been hampered by the Russian invasion. In Argentina, conditions were much more favorable than a year ago, resulting in a stark increase in production. In Brazil, the so-called second maize crop (Safrinha) is the most important one. It is planted after harvest of the soybeans in February. It reached maturity by July. Its yield was reduced due to the rainfall deficit caused by El Niño, deforestation and global warming. Conditions for maize production were average in Kenya, Uganda and northern Malawi. However, all other countries in southern Africa were affected by a severe drought that started at the peak of the rainy season. Harvest in those countries was completed in April or May. In the USA, conditions for maize production in the corn belt and surrounding states were close to average. Similarly, conditions were favorable in western Europe, but Southeast Europe, especially Romania and the Ukraine suffered from a rainfall deficit. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine also keeps creating challenging conditions for farmers in that country. In China, dry conditions after wheat harvest in May created unfavorable conditions for germination of the maize crop in the North China Plain. However, abundant rainfall in July helped alleviate the conditions. Some local flooding was observed in the Northeast.

Rice: Conditions for monsoon (Kharif) season rice production have been generally favorable so far in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The official onset of the monsoon in India occurred a few days earlier than in recent years. It covered the entire country on July 2nd. In China, conditions have been normal for rice production, allowing for a timely planting. Some local flooding has been reported, but this will have a very minor impact on production at the national level. Southeast Asia was plagued by a rainfall deficit between April and June, caused by El Niño. The countries most affected were Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. The ongoing civil war in Myanmar further disrupted production and marketing of rice. In Brazil, the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, its most important producer, led to some yield losses in April and May. In the USA, conditions for rice production in California and the southern states have been favorable so far.

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production in the major exporting countries, such as USA, Canada, France, Germany, Russia and Kazakhstan were generally favorable. Good rains over the winter months helped with the production of winter wheat. Although in Russia’s Caucasus region, a lack of rain reduced production. Similarly, drought conditions reduced yields in the Maghreb, Spain, Romania and the Ukraine. The Near and Middle East, as well as Central Asia benefitted from average rainfall, after several years of droughts. As a result, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan experienced significant increases in wheat production. In the highlands of East Africa, as well as in the Cape region of South Africa, conditions have been favorable so far. China’s wheat harvest benefitted from relatively dry weather during the harvest period of winter wheat in May and June. In Argentina, Australia, and Brazil, wheat sowing peaked in June. So far, conditions have been average.

Soybean: In the USA and Canada, conditions for soybean production have been favorable and high yields are expected. In the Ukraine, a rainfall deficit as well as the war are hampering production. In China, the soybean growing season was off to a slow start in the North China Plain due to dry conditions in May and June. However, abundant rainfall created a favorable environment for the establishment of soybean crops thereafter.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In Argentina, rainfall varied greatly among the provinces. Among its important wheat-producing regions, it was below average in the province of Buenos Aires but average in Cordoba and the Pampas. In Rio Grande do Sul, another important wheat producing region, rainfall was above average. Most of the other states of Brazil were dominated by severe rainfall deficits. In Central America, this period is important for the start of the rainfed maize production. Conditions were average. In Mexico, a rainfall deficit persisted until the end of June, but abundant rains started in July, which will help with the establishment of the maize crops. The western half of the USA experienced a rainfall deficit. This had a negative impact on wheat production in the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains. Rainfall was average to above average in Texas and the eastern half of the USA. Similarly, conditions were average to above average in Canada. The Maghreb, the Iberian Peninsula as well as Greece, Romania and most of eastern Europe experienced a rainfall deficit, exceeding -30%. Apart from the Western Cape region in South Africa, no rainfed crops were sown in Africa south of the equator during this period. Hence, the rainfall deficit has little impact on crop production, but it also reduces the growth of grass for grazing. In Sudan, Chad, Mali, and Senegal, rainfall was above average, creating suitable conditions for land preparation. India and most of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, received above-average rainfall. China’s crop production regions also received average to above-average rainfall, but the months of April and May were generally too dry. For the important rice-producing countries Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, a rainfall deficit was observed. Rainfall varied among regions of Australia. South Australia and Victoria had a rainfall deficit. Conditions were average to above average in the other provinces. 

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of April to July 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

(2) Temperatures

In almost all parts of Earth, temperatures were average or warmer as compared to the 15YA. The only notable exceptions were Argentina, Chile, New Zealand and the provinces of South Australia and Victoria in Australia.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of April to July 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in °C .

2.3 RADPAR

The below average temperatures in Argentina’s crop production regions, Chile and New Zealand were accompanied by below average solar radiation. Other regions, which had above average rainfall, such as western Europe, the South of the USA and Central Asia also had below average solar radiation. Solar radiation levels were also below average for most of China, the Koreas, Japan, Maritime Southeast Asia, Eastern Australia and New Zealand. Above-average radiation levels were recorded for Eastern Europe and most of Africa south of the equator.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of April to July 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in tropical regions during the rainy season, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. In South America, biomass was mostly below average, with the only exception being Parana in Brazil. California, the Canadian Prairies, as well as the High Plains in USA had average biomass production. The other western regions of the USA had below average biomass production by more than -10%. In the eastern half of the USA, conditions were more favorable, resulting in above average production.

Few crops are grown during this monitoring period in Africa south of the equator, hence the reduced biomass production has little impact on food security in that region. Most of North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Europe also had reduced biomass production by more than -10%. Conditions for biomass production were more favorable in western Europe, Central Asia and most of India. Southeast Asia had a biomass production deficit in the range of -5 to -10%. Conditions in China were mostly average.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of April to July 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.5 Crop Conditions Index

The CPI spatial distribution map for April to July 2024 reveals significant variations in crop production conditions across global agro-ecological zones. In major agricultural regions worldwide, including large parts of North America, South America, Europe, and Northeast China, the CPI was slightly below 1.0, indicating a marginally unfavorable global crop production situation. Notably low CPI values were observed in India, Southeast Asia, most of Ukraine, southwestern Russia, southeastern Australia, and South Africa, suggesting that conditions were not optimal for crop production. Conversely, higher CPI values were found in in the Middle East, Central Asia, Pakistan, and Argentina, indicating favorable conditions.

Overall, the global CPI suggests a mixed outlook for crop production in the period from April to July 2024. While some regions are experiencing favorable conditions, many key agricultural areas are facing challenges.

Figure 3.5 Spatial distribution of CPI in global agro-ecological zones (AEZs)