The current period is winter in Australia. According to the crop calendar, Australian wheat was sown from May to July. Rainfall was above average (RAIN, +7%), temperature was average (TEMP, 0%), while radiation was slightly below average (RADPAR, -2%). The rainfall profile showed that the above average rainfall occurred in the early April and early May, which had a limited impact on the accumulated biomass (BIOMSS, -2%). Agronomic indicators were also average. The CALF was 7% above average at 93%, while the maximum VCI and CPI were 0.75 and 0.95 respectively.

Conditions varied widely across the four major wheat producing states. New South Wales and Western Australia had inadequate rainfall (-28% and -10% respectively), which led to declining biomass (-13% and -10% respectively). In contrast, South Australia and Victoria received above average rainfall (+7%, +10%), resulting in slightly increased biomass (+2%, +5%).

The national NDVI profile was generally below average, but conditions started to improve after early June. NDVI clustering showed that 35.1% of the cultivated area had a positive NDVI departure from mid-April, while only 30.7% of the area was below average after wheat sowing. The low value of VCIx mainly was found in Victoria, and the other area were ranged from 0.8 to 1, which indicated average conditions.

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological zones (AEZs) for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 in NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), and the Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The Southeastern wheat area had slightly below average rainfall (RAIN, -3%) and temperature (TEMP, -0.6°C), while radiation was average. As a result, biomass accumulation potential was also slightly below average (BIOMSS -5%). CALF increased by 5% to 95%, but the maximum VCI was only 0.68 and the CPI was only 0.81. Both agro-climatic and agronomic indicators showed a poor condition in this AEZ. The NDVI profile also showed a similar situation, with all NDVI were below average in the current reporting period, especially from May to July.

In the subhumid subtropical zone, rainfall was largely increased by 38%, providing good soil moisture. The temperature decreased slightly by -0.2°C and solar radiation was below average (RADPAR, -6%). The good soil moisture led to an increased biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS, +19%). Meanwhile, CALF was also significantly increased (CALF, +31%). The maximum VCI and CPI were 0.87 and 1.30 respectively. The NDVI profile showed an average condition. In general, the condition in this AEZ should be favourable.  

The Southwestern wheat area experienced a warm season with an above-average temperature (TEMP, +0.7 °C). Rainfall and radiation were both average (RAIN, +1%; RADPAR, +3%). Biomass was also average (BIOMSS, -1%). The CALF was 93%, while the maximum VCI and CPI were 0.78 and 1.03, respectively. The NDVI profile was relatively poor, being mostly below average throughout the period, and then was significantly improved in July. This could be due to the late sowing of the wheat. The condition of this zone is close to average.

In the humid temperate and subtropical zone, rainfall was above average (RAIN, +10%) and the temperature was slightly higher (TEMP, +0.2 °C). Radiation was slightly below average (RADPAR, -3%). The potential for biomass accumulation was then increased by 7%. The CALF was average (CALF, +1%), while the maximum VCI and CPI were 0.78 and 0.94, respectively. NDVI was mostly below average. Condition in this zone is close to average.

Overall, the condition during the current reporting period was average, but improved from June to July. The production of wheat will greatly depend on the conditions in the next reporting period.

Figure 3.1 Australia’s crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                    (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone) (k) CPI time series graph of Australia

Table 3.1 Australia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

Table 3.2 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024