During the reporting period, Boro (winter) rice and wheat harvest ended in May, while Aus rice planting finished in May. It will be harvested by August. The sowing of the main rice crop (Aman) started in June. Rainfall was below average (-16%), both TEMP (+1.4℃) and RADPAR (+2%) were higher than the 15YA. Continuous extreme heat exceeding 40℃ in some areas of Bangladesh affected the crop conditions during this reporting period. The potential biomass decreased by 10%. The national NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions across the country were close to the 5-year average and they even reached the maximum levels in June due to favorable weather. The extreme high temperature and a rainfall deficit caused the drop at the end of April while cloud in satellite images caused the drop at the end of June. The spatial NDVI pattern shows that half of cultivated area in Bangladesh was close to average and the other half had drops in July due to below-average rainfall. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.90, with most areas higher than 0.8 and CALF was the same as the 5-year average (97%). CPI was 0.95. Overall, the crop conditions in most parts of Bangladesh were close to average.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Coastal region (23), the Gangetic plain (24), the Hills (25), and the Sylhet basin (26).

In the Coastal region, rainfall was 10% below average and RADPAR was also below average (-1%). TEMP was above average (+1.0°C). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average and even reached above the 5YA in May. BIOMSS was below average (-10%). CALF was at 90% and VCIx at 0.89, CPI was 0.98, confirming average agricultural production.

The Gangetic plains received the least precipitation amount of 918 mm (30% below average). Both TEMP and RADPAR was above average (+1.5°C and +4%). BIOMASS was below average (-12%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows crop conditions were slightly below the 5-year average during the period except for the end of June. CALF (97%) was the same as average. VCIx (0.88) and CPI (0.93) indicate average conditions in this region.

In the Hills, RAIN was also below average (-20%) while TEMP was above average (+1.0°C). RADPAR was close to average. BIOMASS was slightly below 5YA (-7%). The crop condition was close to average and even above maximum in early June, as shown by the NDVI development profiles. CALF (97%) was 1% higher than average. VCIx (0.93) and CPI (1.01) indicates average crop prospects.

The Sylhet Basin experienced a decrease in rainfall (-4%). TEMP was 1.6°C above average and RADPAR was 1% above. The BIOMSS was slightly below average (-10%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were below average before June and they increased to above average levels in early June and returned to the average in July. A high CALF of 99% and VCIx of 0.91 and CPI of 0.96 indicate average crop conditions.

Figure 3.9 Bangladesh’s crop condition, April - July 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Time series rainfall profile

(e) Time series temperature profile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(k)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

(l) CPI time series graph

Table 3.9 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

Table 3.10 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024