The reporting period covers the planting of spring wheat and summer crops, which ended in late June. Winter wheat harvest started in July. The nationwide rainfall was 248 mm, 8% below the 15YA average. Solar radiation (RADPAR 1%) was slightly above the 15YA, temperature (+1.7°C) above the average, the potential biomass was expected to decrease by 2%. Agronomic conditions were generally within the normal range: good values for VCIx (0.92) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF 100%) were observed.

The NDVI development graph was overall close the 5-year average from April to July, and spatial patterns showed small variability across the regions. Crop conditions on about 92% of the cropped area were close to the 5-year average. The average national VCIx was 0.92, higher than the value of 0.85 in the observed for the same period of last year, indicating generally slightly improving crop prospects in most crop areas. The reduced rainfall caused the CPI to drop to 0.98. But it was still close to normal levels.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (28, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (27, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (29) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus  recorded a minor increase of rainfall (6%) , higher temperature (1.6°C) and a slight decrease of radiation (-1%). The BIOMSS was expected to increase by 5%. CALF (100%) showed a satisfactory value, but VCIx was slightly worse, at 0.91. Therefore, the CPI was slightly below 1, just close to normal levels.

Central Belarus experienced lower rainfall (-18%), higher temperature (+1.9°C), and above average radiation (+3%). The resulting potential biomass was expected to decrease by approximately 6%. All arable land was utilized for cropping (CALF at 100%), accompanied by a vegetation condition index (VCIx) of 0.92 and NDVI curve was basically close to normal conditions. The CPI (0.99) was slightly higher than national average and closer to baseline.This may be related to better vegetation conditions.

Southern Belarus experienced the same agro-climatic condition as the Central area. Lower rainfall (-24%), higher temperature (+1.7°C) and higher radiation (4%) were recorded. The BIOMSS was expected to decrease by 11%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 100%, VCIx 0.92) were observed. The CPI was lower than the baseline at 0.98 due to a rainfall deficit.

Figure 3.5 Belarus’s crop condition, April 2024- July 2024.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

 (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles 

 (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

(k) CPI time series     

 (l) CPI time series (North Belarus)

(m) CPI time series (Central Belarus)  

(n) CPI time series (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.1 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April 2024- July 2024.

Table 3.2 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April 2024- July 2024.